Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
88%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
67.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
58.6%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
79.5%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Vila Nova
Ponte Preta
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Vila Nova
22 matches
Ponte Preta
22 matches
| Vila Nova | Statistic | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wins | 2 |
| 4 | Draws | 4 |
| 7 | Losses | 16 |
| 29 | Goals For | 16 |
| 25 | Goals Against | 42 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.73 |
| 1.14 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.91 |
| 11 | BTTS Yes | 12 |
| 15 | Over 1.5 | 18 |
| 9 | Over 2.5 | 11 |
| 3 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 3.45 | Shots On Goal | 3.5 |
| 12.41 | Total Shots | 10.77 |
| 4.77 | Corners | 4.82 |
| 52.4% | Ball Possession | 43% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Vila Nova's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ponte Preta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vila Nova expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ponte Preta in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ponte Preta having the stronger overall control. Vila Nova arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 34 points compared to Ponte Preta in 20 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency.
Vila Nova approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 34 points from 21 matches. The overall return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats with a 27:25 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), Janderson (2 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (5 assists), Janderson (4 assists), Ryan Lima (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.
Ponte Preta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 9 points from 21 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 16 defeats with a 15:41 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Elvis (2 goals), Brandão (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 4 times, Ponte Preta won 2 times, while 9 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:9 from Vila Nova's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 37:19 | 18 | 59 |
W
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 2 |
Vila Nova
Home
|
32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 44:31 | 13 | 58 |
D
W
W
W
D
|
| 3 | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 54:27 | 27 | 57 |
W
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 4 | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 37:27 | 10 | 56 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 5 | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 33:28 | 5 | 53 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 6 | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 40:30 | 10 | 52 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 49:45 | 4 | 51 |
W
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 44:34 | 10 | 50 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 44:43 | 1 | 48 |
L
L
D
W
D
|
|
| 10 | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 32:25 | 7 | 47 |
D
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 32:40 | -8 | 45 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 12 | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 44:34 | 10 | 45 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 13 | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 39:40 | -1 | 42 |
L
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 14 | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 35:39 | -4 | 42 |
W
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 15 | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 38:37 | 1 | 42 |
L
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 16 | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 36:38 | -2 | 38 |
W
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 17 | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 32:43 | -11 | 33 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 40:47 | -7 | 28 |
L
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 32 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 21:53 | -32 | 17 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 |
Ponte Preta
Away
|
32 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 17:68 | -51 | 13 |
L
L
L
W
L
|