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BRAZIL › SERIE B
19.08.2026 23:30
Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Referee: M. Lima Barbosa
Vila Nova
Match Timeline
Ponte Preta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
Janderson · Assist: Andre Luis
Vila Nova
⚽
13'
Andre Luis · Assist: Dellatorre
Vila Nova
🔄
19'
Elvis ↔ Juan Rodrigues
Ponte Preta
⚽
40'
Marquinhos Gabriel · Assist: Higor
Vila Nova
🔄
46'
Higor ↔ Igor Carius
Vila Nova
🔄
46'
Dellatorre ↔ Everton Galdino
Vila Nova
🔄
46'
Baianinho ↔ Gustavo Telles
Ponte Preta
⚽
64'
Dudu · Assist: Janderson
Vila Nova
🔄
66'
Andre Luis ↔ Ryan
Vila Nova
🔄
66'
Marquinhos Gabriel ↔ Dodo
Vila Nova
⚽
66'
Everton Galdino · Assist: Janderson
Vila Nova
🔄
71'
Leo Gomes ↔ M. L. Diego
Ponte Preta
🔄
71'
David da Hora ↔ Miguel Morais
Ponte Preta
🔄
72'
Tiago Pagnussat ↔ Willian Formiga
Vila Nova
🟨
73'
Juan
Ponte Preta
🟨
79'
Sergio Palacios
Ponte Preta
⚽
80'
Willian Formiga · Assist: Dodo
Vila Nova
🔄
84'
Brandao ↔ Joao Damiao
Ponte Preta
🟨
90+4'
Miguel Morais
Ponte Preta

Vila Nova vs Ponte Preta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 88%
Draw 6%
Ponte Preta Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.56
Ponte Preta0.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
29 GF / 25 GA
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WLDWL
16 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
0.73
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.91
11
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
11
3.45
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 22 matches
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 22 matches
Vila Nova Statistic Ponte Preta
11 Wins 2
4 Draws 4
7 Losses 16
29 Goals For 16
25 Goals Against 42
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 0.73
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.91
11 BTTS Yes 12
15 Over 1.5 18
9 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 9
3.45 Shots On Goal 3.5
12.41 Total Shots 10.77
4.77 Corners 4.82
52.4% Ball Possession 43%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Vila Nova's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ponte Preta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vila Nova expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ponte Preta in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ponte Preta having the stronger overall control. Vila Nova arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 34 points compared to Ponte Preta in 20 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 34 points from 21 matches. The overall return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats with a 27:25 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), Janderson (2 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (5 assists), Janderson (4 assists), Ryan Lima (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 9 points from 21 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 16 defeats with a 15:41 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Elvis (2 goals), Brandão (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 4 times, Ponte Preta won 2 times, while 9 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:9 from Vila Nova's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / Ponte Preta 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 4, draws 9, Ponte Preta wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 32 11 9 12 39:40 -1 42
L D W L D
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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