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America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
America de Cali Win 61.3%
Draw 7%
Independiente Medellin Win 31.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
America de Cali1.39
Independiente Medellin1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
America de Cali America de Cali
WWDLW
54 GF / 30 GA
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
WLDWL
60 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.43
0.81
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
14
BTTS Yes
28
15
Over 2.5
25
4.7
Shots on Goal
4.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

America de Cali America de Cali 37 matches
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 42 matches
America de Cali Statistic Independiente Medellin
20 Wins 18
8 Draws 10
9 Losses 14
54 Goals For 60
30 Goals Against 54
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
0.81 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
14 BTTS Yes 28
24 Over 1.5 32
15 Over 2.5 25
5 Over 3.5 12
18 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 7
4.7 Shots On Goal 4.55
13.48 Total Shots 13.55
4.06 Corners 4.85
54.5% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Independiente Medellin. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

America de Cali Analysis

America de Cali come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 33 points after 19 matches. The return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 25:15, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Yeison Guzmán (10 goals), Y. Guzmán (5 goals), D. Rosero (4 goals), with creative support from R. Carrascal (9 assists), L. Quiñones (4 assists), Yeison Guzmán (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Independiente Medellin Analysis

Independiente Medellin are currently 11 in the standings with 26 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 26:24 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Montaño (7 goals), J. Medina (3 goals), Y. González (2 goals), with creative support from J. Montaño (4 assists), F. Fabra (3 assists), Y. González (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, America de Cali won 7 times, Independiente Medellin won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:17 from America de Cali's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
Predicted formations: America de Cali 4-2-3-1 / Independiente Medellin 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: America de Cali wins 7, draws 3, Independiente Medellin wins 5

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D L W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W D L W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L L W L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D D D L L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D W W D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L D L W D
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W L L D L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W W W D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L W L L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L L L D D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W L W W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D W L L W
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W L L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L D D L
Post season qualification