MEXICO › LIGA MX
12.10.2026 01:00
Estadio Olímpico Universitario

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
U.N.A.M. - Pumas Win 29.3%
Draw 17.7%
Cruz Azul Win 53%
Expected Goals (xG)
U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.45
Cruz Azul1.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas
WWDLW
19 GF / 21 GA
Cruz Azul Cruz Azul
WLDWL
39 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
2.05
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
7
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
14
4.42
Shots on Goal
7.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas 14 matches
Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 19 matches
U.N.A.M. - Pumas Statistic Cruz Azul
5 Wins 9
3 Draws 4
6 Losses 6
19 Goals For 39
21 Goals Against 30
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 2.05
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
7 BTTS Yes 12
11 Over 1.5 17
8 Over 2.5 14
4 Over 3.5 8
3 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 3
4.42 Shots On Goal 7.13
13.17 Total Shots 19.5
5.08 Corners 6.63
47.6% Ball Possession 58.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Cruz Azul's more proactive style and U.N.A.M. - Pumas's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. U.N.A.M. - Pumas have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cruz Azul. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with U.N.A.M. - Pumas expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Cruz Azul in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cruz Azul having the stronger overall control.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas Analysis

With 12 points from 10 games and a place of 12, U.N.A.M. - Pumas still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 14:16, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Juninho (5 goals), R. Morales (2 goals), R. López (1 goals), with creative support from R. Morales (3 assists), R. López (2 assists), P. Vite (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cruz Azul Analysis

Cruz Azul are currently 7 in the standings with 16 points from 10 matches. The record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 19:18 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Fernández (4 goals), J. Paradela (2 goals), N. Ibáñez (2 goals), with creative support from J. Paradela (4 assists), C. Rodríguez (3 assists), L. Romero (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 2 times, Cruz Azul won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:23 from U.N.A.M. - Pumas's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.3%)
Predicted formations: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 4-4-2 / Cruz Azul 5-4-1
H2H summary: U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins 2, draws 5, Cruz Azul wins 8

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 23:12 11 20
D L W W W
2 9 6 2 1 21:10 11 20
W D L W W
3 10 5 3 2 17:10 7 18
L D W W D
4 9 5 2 2 13:8 5 17
W D W W L
5 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W D W L D
6 10 5 2 3 16:17 -1 17
W D L D L
7 10 5 1 4 19:18 1 16
D L W W W
8 9 4 2 3 14:13 1 14
L D L W L
9 10 4 2 4 11:12 -1 14
L D L W L
10 9 4 1 4 16:14 2 13
L W D L L
11 10 3 3 4 15:11 4 12
L D W W D
12 10 3 3 4 14:16 -2 12
L D L W L
13 10 3 3 4 14:18 -4 12
W W L L W
14 10 2 5 3 12:15 -3 11
W D L D D
15 10 2 4 4 10:13 -3 10
W L D D D
16 10 3 1 6 10:15 -5 10
W W W L D
17 10 2 2 6 12:20 -8 8
L L L D L
18 10 1 0 9 7:25 -18 3
L W L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)