MEXICO › LIGA MX

26.04.2026 01:05

Toluca

4 - 1

Leon

Estadio Nemesio Diez

Referee: D. Quintero

Toluca

Match Timeline

Leon

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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Toluca vs Leon Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Home Win

Probability 70.6%

Odds -

BTTS

BTTS Yes

Probability 89.2%

Odds -

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 88.1%

Odds -

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Home Win	70.6%	-	▥
BTTS	BTTS Yes	89.2%	-	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	88.1%	-	▥

Probability Distribution

Toluca Win 70.6%

Draw 10.3%

Leon Win 19.2%

Expected Goals (xG)

Toluca1.86

Leon1.04

Recent Form (Last 5)

Toluca

WWDLW

74 GF / 39 GA

Leon

WLDWL

35 GF / 59 GA

Key Stats

1.9

Average Goals Scored

1.06

Average Goals Conceded

1.79

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

5.74

Shots on Goal

4.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toluca 39 matches

Leon 33 matches

Toluca	Statistic	Leon
21	Wins	10
11	Draws	5
7	Losses	18
74	Goals For	35
39	Goals Against	59
1.9	Avg Goals Scored	1.06
1	Avg Goals Conceded	1.79
22	BTTS Yes	17
28	Over 1.5	27
20	Over 2.5	18
15	Over 3.5	9
13	Clean Sheets	6
9	Failed To Score	11
5.74	Shots On Goal	4.39
17.51	Total Shots	13.27
5.64	Corners	4.94
56.8%	Ball Possession	52.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 4 times, Leon won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:24 from Toluca's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win

BTTS: BTTS Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (89.7%)

Predicted formations: Toluca 4-2-3-1 / Leon 4-1-4-1

H2H summary: Toluca wins 4, draws 7, Leon wins 3

Standings

Liga MX, Clausura 2026

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	17	10	6	1	34:17	17	36	L D W L D
2	Guadalajara Chivas	17	11	3	3	33:17	16	36	L D W L D
3	Cruz Azul	17	9	6	2	31:18	13	33	W D W D W
4	CF Pachuca	17	9	4	4	25:19	6	31	L W W W L
5	Toluca Home	17	8	6	3	28:16	12	30	L L W L L
6	Atlas	17	7	5	5	16:18	-2	26	L L W D W
7	Tigres UANL	17	7	4	6	28:18	10	25	L W W D D
8	Club America	17	7	4	6	20:17	3	25	D D L W W
9	Club Tijuana	17	5	8	4	19:17	2	23	D W D W W
10	Leon Away	17	7	1	9	22:32	-10	22	L L W W W
11	Club Queretaro	17	4	8	5	17:21	-4	20	W D D W D
12	FC Juarez	17	5	4	8	26:32	-6	19	W L L L D
13	Monterrey	17	5	3	9	22:24	-2	18	L W L D L
14	Atletico San Luis	17	5	3	9	24:27	-3	18	L W L D W
15	Necaxa	17	5	3	9	19:25	-6	18	L D D L W
16	Mazatlán	17	4	3	10	22:37	-15	15	L W D L L
17	Puebla	17	3	4	10	13:26	-13	13	L L L L D
18	Santos Laguna	17	3	3	11	20:38	-18	12	W L L L D

Playoffs