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CHILE › PRIMERA B
05.05.2026 00:30
Estadio Carlos Dittborn
San Marcos de Arica
Match Timeline
Recoleta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
39'
F. Tomarelli
Recoleta
🔄
46'
C. Guerra ↔ C. Rencoret
San Marcos de Arica
🔄
61'
I. Lara ↔ F. I. Saavedra Saavedra
Recoleta
🔄
61'
F. Baez ↔ M. Arguinarena
Recoleta
🔄
61'
G. Alvarez ↔ C. Gonzalez
Recoleta
🔄
65'
A. Galleguillos ↔ G. Reyes
San Marcos de Arica
🔄
65'
N. Donadell ↔ A. Abalos
San Marcos de Arica
🟨
67'
G. Reyes
San Marcos de Arica
⚽
76'
G. Reyes
San Marcos de Arica
🟨
78'
B. Provoste
Recoleta
🔄
79'
J. Espinoza ↔ D. Viveros
Recoleta
🔄
79'
C. Rodriguez ↔ N. Carvajal
Recoleta
🔄
84'
C. Melivilu Fuentes ↔ N. Zedan
San Marcos de Arica
🔄
90+4'
B. Sagredo ↔ M. Iturra
San Marcos de Arica

San Marcos de Arica vs Recoleta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
San Marcos de Arica Win 47.3%
Draw 13.8%
Recoleta Win 39%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Marcos de Arica1.4
Recoleta1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Marcos de Arica San Marcos de Arica
WWDLW
13 GF / 10 GA
Recoleta Recoleta
WLDWL
20 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.82
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
5
BTTS Yes
7
4
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Marcos de Arica San Marcos de Arica 11 matches
Recoleta Recoleta 11 matches
San Marcos de Arica Statistic Recoleta
4 Wins 6
6 Draws 1
1 Losses 4
13 Goals For 20
10 Goals Against 19
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.82
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
5 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 10
4 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. San Marcos de Arica come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Recoleta having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Recoleta.

San Marcos de Arica Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 17 points from 9 games, San Marcos de Arica bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses, with a 13:6 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on C. Melivilu Fuentes (7 goals), C. Guerra (2 goals), A. Maidana (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Recoleta Analysis

From their first 9 matches, Recoleta have collected 16 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, while the 18:17 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Baez (3 goals), G. Estigarribia (3 goals), P. Sanchez (3 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, San Marcos de Arica won 5 times, Recoleta won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:6 from San Marcos de Arica's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.43 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.2%)
H2H summary: San Marcos de Arica wins 5, draws 2, Recoleta wins 0

Standings

Primera B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 13 9 4 44:27 17 48
W W D L W
2 26 13 8 5 41:29 12 47
W W W W W
3 27 13 7 7 44:39 5 46
W W W D D
4 27 12 8 7 42:30 12 44
L L L L W
5 26 11 8 7 44:26 18 41
W L D L W
6 27 11 8 8 39:36 3 41
L W D W W
7 26 10 9 7 33:24 9 39
W W L W L
8 26 10 7 9 40:39 1 37
W W D L L
9 26 10 6 10 32:34 -2 36
L D L D L
10 27 9 8 10 42:37 5 35
W L D W L
11 26 10 4 12 26:34 -8 34
L L L W L
12 26 7 10 9 35:30 5 31
W W L L L
13 27 7 9 11 24:40 -16 30
W L L W L
14 27 4 10 13 28:42 -14 22
L L D W D
15 26 5 7 14 16:44 -28 22
L L L D D
16 26 4 6 16 23:42 -19 18
L L W W W