URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Parque Abraham Paladino
Referee: F. Vikonis
Progreso
Match Timeline
Albion FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
T. Moschion
Albion FC
VAR
6'
J. Dos Santos
Progreso
VAR
18'
S. Costa
Albion FC
24'
T. Figueroa
Albion FC
🟨
28'
F. Andueza
Progreso
🟨
41'
T. Moschion
Albion FC
🟥
41'
T. Moschion
Albion FC
45'
C. Airala
Albion FC
🔄
46'
M. Martin ↔ G. Trasante
Progreso
🔄
46'
F. De Leon ↔ G. Silva
Progreso
🔄
46'
A. Pinheiro ↔ M. Copelotti
Progreso
56'
J. Dos Santos
Progreso
🟨
64'
M. de los Santos
Albion FC
🔄
72'
J. Dos Santos ↔ G. Silva
Progreso
🔄
76'
A. Vera ↔ R. Gutierrez
Albion FC
🔄
77'
F. Kidd ↔ I. Lemmo
Progreso
🟨
78'
H. Carroso
Progreso
🟨
87'
T. Figueroa
Albion FC
🟨
90+3'
A. Colombino
Progreso
🔄
90+3'
S. Costa ↔ P. Lacoste
Albion FC
🔄
90+3'
C. Airala ↔ F. Puente
Albion FC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65%
-
BTTS Yes
68.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Progreso Win 23.7%
Draw 11.3%
Albion FC Win 65%
Expected Goals (xG)
Progreso0.92
Albion FC1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Progreso Progreso
WWDLW
15 GF / 28 GA
Albion FC Albion FC
WLDWL
27 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
0.83
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
8
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Progreso Progreso 18 matches
Albion FC Albion FC 18 matches
Progreso Statistic Albion FC
3 Wins 8
4 Draws 5
11 Losses 5
15 Goals For 27
28 Goals Against 19
0.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
8 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 11
8 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Albion FC's more proactive style and Progreso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Albion FC. Albion FC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 28 points while Progreso sit 15 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Albion FC having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Progreso Analysis

With 10 points from 15 games and a place of 15, Progreso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 12:23 goal record continues to suggest poor form . Their attacking burden often falls on N. Lopez (3 goals), G. Silva (2 goals), M. Copelotti (2 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Albion FC Analysis

Albion FC come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 28 points from 15 matches. The record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 26:16 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Lopez (13 goals), C. Airala (4 goals), F. Ginella (3 goals), with creative support from A. Lopez (1 assists), C. Airala (1 assists), S. Costa (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Progreso won 2 times, Albion FC won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:9 from Progreso's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.7%)
Predicted formations: Progreso 4-2-3-1 / Albion FC -
H2H summary: Progreso wins 2, draws 1, Albion FC wins 2

Lineups

Progreso
Formation
Albion FC
A. Requena
A. Requena
M. Martin
M. Martin
H. Carroso
H. Carroso
G. Silva
G. Silva
F. Kidd
F. Kidd
A. Pinheiro
A. Pinheiro
A. Colombino
A. Colombino
N. Lopez
N. Lopez
N. Fernandez
N. Fernandez
F. De Leon
F. De Leon
J. Dos Santos
J. Dos Santos
S. Jaume
S. Jaume
F. Couture
F. Couture
M. de los Santos
M. de los Santos
E. Burdin
E. Burdin
J. Alvarez
J. Alvarez
T. Moschion
T. Moschion
F. Ginella
F. Ginella
S. Costa
S. Costa
A. Vera
A. Vera
C. Airala
C. Airala
T. Figueroa
T. Figueroa
Progreso 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
33
A. Requena
15
M. Martin
↓ 46'
13
H. Carroso
🟨 78'
27
G. Silva
14
F. Kidd
↓ 77'
5
A. Pinheiro
↓ 46'
8
A. Colombino
🟨 90+3'
11
N. Lopez
29
N. Fernandez
17
F. De Leon
↓ 46'
25
J. Dos Santos
⚽ 56' ↓ 72'
Substitutes
12
L. Fernandez
16
G. Trasante
↑ 46'
2
S. Cardozo Coitinho
6
F. Andueza
🟨 28'
40
A. Cougo
10
I. Lemmo
↑ 77'
18
G. Silva
↑ 46'
30
A. Codagnone
9
G. Silva
↑ 72'
23
M. Copelotti
↑ 46'
Albion FC 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
S. Jaume
2
F. Couture
17
M. de los Santos
🟨 64'
24
E. Burdin
16
J. Alvarez
6
T. Moschion
🟨 3' 🟨 41' 🟥 41'
5
F. Ginella
27
S. Costa
↓ 90+3'
22
A. Vera
↓ 76'
10
C. Airala
⚽ 45' ↓ 90+3'
32
T. Figueroa
⚽ 24' 🟨 87'
Substitutes
31
D. Lerda
13
P. Lacoste
↑ 90+3'
20
R. Gutierrez
↑ 76'
29
F. Puente
↑ 90+3'
23
B. Perez del Castillo
80
Leonardo Pais
21
L. Rodriguez Trezza
18
B. Acosta
11
H. Toledo
79
N. Roldan
Last matches: Progreso
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
3
L
09.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
1
1
D
01.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
0
5
L
Last matches: Albion FC
31.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
23.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Club Nacional
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Wanderers
0
0
D
09.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Danubio
1
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Club Nacional
3
2
W
25.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
17.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Central Espanol
6
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Cerro Largo
2
2
D
31.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
25.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Wanderers
2
1
W
22.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Juventud
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Penarol
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Progreso
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Albion FC
Racing Montevideo
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Albion FC
Boston River
0
0
D
16.02.26
Pri
Albion FC
Cerro
3
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
Albion FC
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
L
H2H: Progreso vs Albion FC
07.06.26
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
L
07.03.26
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
29.11.23
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
3
2
W
22.07.23
H2H
Albion FC
Progreso
3
0
L
22.04.23
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
1
0
W
Last matches: Progreso
23.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
22.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
3
L
01.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
0
5
L
19.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
2
3
L
05.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
2
0
W
21.09.25
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
0
W
07.09.25
Pri
Progreso
Miramar
3
2
W
24.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
1
0
W
09.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
1
2
L
H2H at home: Progreso
07.06.26
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
L
07.03.26
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
29.11.23
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
3
2
W
22.04.23
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
1
0
W
Last matches: Albion FC
23.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Club Nacional
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
Albion FC
Danubio
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
11.04.26
Pri
Albion FC
Atletico Torque
1
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Juventud
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Albion FC
Progreso
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Albion FC
Boston River
0
0
D
H2H away: Albion FC
07.06.26
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
W
07.03.26
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
29.11.23
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
3
2
L
22.04.23
H2H
Progreso
Albion FC
1
0
L