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RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
11.05.2026 12:15
Sovcombank Arena
Referee: A. Prokopov
Nizhny Novgorod
Match Timeline
CSKA Moscow
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Vadim Lukyanov
Nizhny Novgorod
🟨
-5'
Vadim Lukyanov
Nizhny Novgorod
🟥
-5'
Vadim Lukyanov
Nizhny Novgorod
🟨
28'
Daniil Lesovoy
Nizhny Novgorod
🟨
40'
Nikolay Kalinskiy
Nizhny Novgorod
🔄
42'
R. Cephas ↔ V. Grulev
Nizhny Novgorod
⚽
44'
D. Lesovoy · Assist: O. Olusegun
Nizhny Novgorod
🔄
46'
I. Kirsch ↔ V. Aleksandrov
Nizhny Novgorod
🔄
46'
D. Lesovoy ↔ A. Balboa
Nizhny Novgorod
🔄
57'
D. Barinov ↔ D. Kozlov
CSKA Moscow
🔄
58'
T. Musaev ↔ M. Voronov
CSKA Moscow
🔄
58'
A. Bandikyan ↔ I. Firov
CSKA Moscow
🔄
67'
Matheus Reis ↔ M. Popovic
CSKA Moscow
🔄
72'
O. Olusegun ↔ M. Urvantsev
Nizhny Novgorod
🔄
73'
Joao Victor ↔ M. Lukin
CSKA Moscow
🔄
84'
L. Ticic ↔ A. Ivlev
Nizhny Novgorod
🟨
88'
Viktor Aleksandrov
Nizhny Novgorod
⚽
88'
D. Kozlov · Assist: I. Firov
CSKA Moscow
⚽
90'
I. Firov
CSKA Moscow

Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 27.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
27.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nizhny Novgorod Win 29.8%
Draw 15.2%
CSKA Moscow Win 55%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nizhny Novgorod0.94
CSKA Moscow1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod
WWDLW
23 GF / 46 GA
CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow
WLDWL
39 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
11
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
12
3.75
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod 28 matches
CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow 28 matches
Nizhny Novgorod Statistic CSKA Moscow
6 Wins 13
4 Draws 6
18 Losses 9
23 Goals For 39
46 Goals Against 31
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
11 BTTS Yes 15
22 Over 1.5 18
15 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 7
14 Failed To Score 8
3.75 Shots On Goal 4.43
10.89 Total Shots 13.86
4.39 Corners 5.5
43.4% Ball Possession 56.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by CSKA Moscow's more proactive style and Nizhny Novgorod's more cautious structure. Nizhny Novgorod appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward CSKA Moscow. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nizhny Novgorod expected to line up in 4-3-3 and CSKA Moscow in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward CSKA Moscow having the stronger overall control. Nizhny Novgorod have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. CSKA Moscow carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 45 points while Nizhny Novgorod sit 15 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward CSKA Moscow. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Nizhny Novgorod Analysis

Nizhny Novgorod sit 15 with 22 points after 28 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 18 defeats with a 23:46 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Juan Manuel Boselli (8 goals), O. Olusegun (5 goals), A. Balboa (3 goals), with creative support from Juan Manuel Boselli (2 assists), Renaldo Cephas (2 assists), Egor Smelov (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with A. Ektov, E. Farina, A. Sarfo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

CSKA Moscow Analysis

CSKA Moscow are currently 6 in the standings with 45 points from 28 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, while the 39:31 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Ivan Oblyakov (6 goals), D. Krugovoy (5 goals), Kirill Glebov (5 goals), with creative support from D. Krugovoy (6 assists), Ivan Oblyakov (5 assists), M. Kislyak (5 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with I. Akinfeev unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nizhny Novgorod won 2 times, CSKA Moscow won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:29 from Nizhny Novgorod's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.8%)
Predicted formations: Nizhny Novgorod 4-3-3 / CSKA Moscow 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Nizhny Novgorod 3, CSKA Moscow 1
H2H summary: Nizhny Novgorod wins 2, draws 4, CSKA Moscow wins 9

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation