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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
10.05.2026 07:00
Toyota Stadium
Referee: K. Fukushima
Nagoya Grampus
Match Timeline
Kyoto Sanga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
Y. Yamagishi · Assist: K. Nakayama
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
28'
Henrique Trevisan
Kyoto Sanga
⚽
29'
Y. Yamagishi
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
36'
Ryuji Izumi
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
44'
Barreto
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
46'
Gustavo Barreto ↔ Rafael Elias
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
46'
T. Hirato ↔ Joao Pedro
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
46'
T. Matsuda ↔ F. Honda
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
57'
T. Yonemoto ↔ R. Nakano
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
59'
K. Nakayama ↔ Y. Nogami
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
60'
Y. Asano ↔ H. Koda
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
67'
M. Okugawa ↔ T. Hiraoka
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
69'
T. Hara ↔ T. Uchida
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
89'
Y. Kimura ↔ K. Nagai
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
89'
R. Izumi ↔ M. Ono
Nagoya Grampus
⚽
90'
Y. Yamagishi · Assist: H. Koda
Nagoya Grampus

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nagoya Grampus Win 74.1%
Draw 0%
Kyoto Sanga Win 25.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nagoya Grampus1.53
Kyoto Sanga1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
WWDLW
25 GF / 18 GA
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga
WLDWL
25 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
10
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
8
4.67
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 15 matches
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 16 matches
Nagoya Grampus Statistic Kyoto Sanga
7 Wins 5
5 Draws 5
3 Losses 6
25 Goals For 25
18 Goals Against 21
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
10 BTTS Yes 12
13 Over 1.5 15
9 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 3
4.67 Shots On Goal 4.5
13.67 Total Shots 13.71
5.2 Corners 5.43
52.1% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kyoto Sanga. Nagoya Grampus come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nagoya Grampus expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Kyoto Sanga in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kyoto Sanga having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Nagoya Grampus Analysis

Nagoya Grampus approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 28 points after 15 outings. The return of 9 wins, 0 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 27:21, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Y. Kimura (7 goals), Y. Yamagishi (6 goals), Hidemasa Koda (2 goals), with creative support from K. Nakayama (6 assists), Teruki Hara (3 assists), Y. Kimura (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Kyoto Sanga Analysis

Kyoto Sanga sit 7 with 20 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 7 defeats with a 21:20 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Marco Tulio (5 goals), Rafael Elias (5 goals), Henrique Trevisan (2 goals), with creative support from F. Honda (3 assists), Rafael Elias (2 assists), Henrique Trevisan (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nagoya Grampus won 5 times, Kyoto Sanga won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:17 from Nagoya Grampus's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1 / Kyoto Sanga 4-3-3
H2H summary: Nagoya Grampus wins 5, draws 6, Kyoto Sanga wins 4

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)