KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 55.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 47.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.9%
-
BTTS Yes
55.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
47.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mombasa Elite Win 70.9%
Draw 8.7%
Nzoia Sugar Win 20.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mombasa Elite1.19
Nzoia Sugar0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite
WWDLW
47 GF / 31 GA
Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar
WLDWL
36 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.34
Average Goals Scored
1
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
11
BTTS Yes
12
15
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite 35 matches
Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar 36 matches
Mombasa Elite Statistic Nzoia Sugar
22 Wins 11
3 Draws 14
10 Losses 11
47 Goals For 36
31 Goals Against 35
1.34 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
11 BTTS Yes 12
21 Over 1.5 20
15 Over 2.5 11
8 Over 3.5 9
15 Clean Sheets 15
11 Failed To Score 17
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nzoia Sugar. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nzoia Sugar having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Mombasa Elite arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 72 points compared to Nzoia Sugar in 11 on 47, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Mombasa Elite Analysis

Mombasa Elite come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 72 points from 36 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 23 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, while the 49:31 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 16 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Nzoia Sugar Analysis

So far, Nzoia Sugar have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 47 points from 36 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 14 draws, and 11 losses, while the 36:35 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Mombasa Elite won 2 times, Nzoia Sugar won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:3 from Mombasa Elite's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.3%)
H2H summary: Mombasa Elite wins 2, draws 1, Nzoia Sugar wins 1
Last matches: Mombasa Elite
13.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Naivas
1
1
D
01.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
27.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
3K
0
0
D
24.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Mwatate United
1
0
W
17.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Nairobi City Stars
2
1
W
10.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Talanta
0
3
L
03.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Migori Youth
0
0
D
26.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Gucha Stars
1
0
W
19.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Soy United
1
0
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
03.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
29.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MCF
3
1
W
22.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
15.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kabati Youth FC
2
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Equity Bank
3
1
W
27.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MOFA
1
0
W
20.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
15.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kisumu All Stars
4
0
W
01.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
13.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
01.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
3
1
W
27.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
1
L
09.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
3
3
D
03.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
0
4
L
19.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
12.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
1
0
W
04.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
0
2
L
29.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
1
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
3
1
W
14.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
08.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
20.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
4
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
31.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
1
1
D
H2H: Mombasa Elite vs Nzoia Sugar
07.06.26
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
02.11.25
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
2
2
D
14.06.25
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
1
0
L
27.10.24
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
Last matches: Mombasa Elite
27.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
3K
0
0
D
17.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Nairobi City Stars
2
1
W
03.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Migori Youth
0
0
D
19.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Soy United
1
0
W
03.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
29.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MCF
3
1
W
15.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kabati Youth FC
2
0
W
27.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MOFA
1
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kisumu All Stars
4
0
W
18.01.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kibera Black Stars
2
0
W
17.12.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Mwatate United
3
0
W
07.12.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Talanta
2
1
W
22.11.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Equity Bank
2
0
W
10.11.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
29.10.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Naivas
1
0
W
11.10.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
05.10.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Fortune Sacco
2
1
W
H2H at home: Mombasa Elite
07.06.26
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
27.10.24
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
27.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
2
L
17.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
1
L
03.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
0
4
L
12.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
1
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
1
3
L
08.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
20.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
4
0
W
31.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
1
1
D
12.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
4
1
W
17.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
0
0
D
07.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
1
0
W
29.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
15.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
1
2
L
29.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kibera Black Stars
0
0
D
12.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
04.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
2
2
D
H2H away: Nzoia Sugar
07.06.26
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
L
27.10.24
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
L

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation