GERMANY 2. BUNDESLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Olympiastadion
Referee: R. Kampka
Hertha BSC
Match Timeline
Holstein Kiel
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
3'
Josip Brekalo
Hertha BSC
🟨
5'
Michaël Cuisance
Hertha BSC
🟨
10'
Deyovaisio Zeefuik
Hertha BSC
🟨
18'
Lasse Rosenboom
Holstein Kiel
🟨
45+1'
Paul Seguin
Hertha BSC
VAR
45+4'
Linus Gechter
Hertha BSC
🟨
45'
Jonas Meffert
Holstein Kiel
🔄
46'
I. Ugoh ↔ J. Therkelsen
Holstein Kiel
63'
J. Therkelsen · Assist: P. Harres
Holstein Kiel
🔄
67'
L. Schuler ↔ D. Kownacki
Hertha BSC
🟨
75'
Fabian Reese
Hertha BSC
🟨
80'
Ivan Nekić
Holstein Kiel
🔄
80'
D. Zeefuik ↔ J. Eitschberger
Hertha BSC
🔄
87'
P. Seguin ↔ M. Krattenmacher
Hertha BSC
🔄
87'
P. Harres ↔ M. Muller
Holstein Kiel
🔄
87'
A. Kapralik ↔ N. Niehoff
Holstein Kiel
🟨
90+2'
Umut Tohumcu
Holstein Kiel
🔄
90+3'
U. Tohumcu ↔ F. Roslyng
Holstein Kiel
🔄
90+1'
K. Davidsen ↔ S. Schwab
Holstein Kiel

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 81.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 73.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
81.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
73.5%
-
Probability Distribution
Hertha BSC Win 54.1%
Draw 20.9%
Holstein Kiel Win 25.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Hertha BSC1.45
Holstein Kiel1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Hertha BSC Hertha BSC
WWDLW
44 GF / 35 GA
Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel
WLDWL
39 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
14
BTTS Yes
19
14
Over 2.5
16
4.47
Shots on Goal
3.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Hertha BSC Hertha BSC 30 matches
Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 30 matches
Hertha BSC Statistic Holstein Kiel
13 Wins 9
9 Draws 8
8 Losses 13
44 Goals For 39
35 Goals Against 43
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
14 BTTS Yes 19
21 Over 1.5 25
14 Over 2.5 16
7 Over 3.5 7
12 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 5
4.47 Shots On Goal 3.7
12.33 Total Shots 12.2
4.5 Corners 5
48.8% Ball Possession 51.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Hertha BSC's more proactive style and Holstein Kiel's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Holstein Kiel. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Hertha BSC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Holstein Kiel in 4-5-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Holstein Kiel having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Hertha BSC Analysis

So far, Hertha BSC have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 48 points from 30 matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 43:34 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Fabian Reese (11 goals), Jan Luca Schuler (8 goals), Marten Winkler (6 goals), with creative support from Fabian Reese (12 assists), Marten Winkler (6 assists), Michaël Cuisance (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Holstein Kiel Analysis

So far, Holstein Kiel have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 35 points from 30 matches. The record of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 36:43 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Phil Harres (7 goals), David Zec (6 goals), Jonas Therkelsen (4 goals), with creative support from Alexander Bernhardsson (7 assists), Adrián Kaprálik (3 assists), Phil Harres (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Hertha BSC won 2 times, Holstein Kiel won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:5 from Hertha BSC's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.1%)
Predicted formations: Hertha BSC 4-2-3-1 / Holstein Kiel 4-5-1
H2H summary: Hertha BSC wins 2, draws 1, Holstein Kiel wins 1
Stats
Hertha BSC Hertha BSC
Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
13
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 3
6 Fouls 15
5 Offsides 1
59% Ball Possession 41%
23 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Goal 1
13 Shots off Goal 2
7 Blocked Shots 3
11 Shots insidebox 4
12 Shots outsidebox 2
0 Goalkeeper Saves 2
406 Total passes 287
342 Passes accurate 219
1.96 expected_goals 0.30
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Hertha BSC
Formation
Holstein Kiel
T. Ernst
T. Ernst
D. Zeefuik
D. Zeefuik
L. Gechter
L. Gechter
M. Dardai
M. Dardai
M. Karbownik
M. Karbownik
M. Cuisance
M. Cuisance
P. Seguin
P. Seguin
M. Winkler
M. Winkler
J. Brekalo
J. Brekalo
F. Reese
F. Reese
L. Schuler
L. Schuler
T. Weiner
T. Weiner
L. Rosenboom
L. Rosenboom
I. Nekic
I. Nekic
D. Zec
D. Zec
M. Ivezic
M. Ivezic
A. Kapralik
A. Kapralik
I. Ugoh
I. Ugoh
J. Meffert
J. Meffert
K. Davidsen
K. Davidsen
U. Tohumcu
U. Tohumcu
P. Harres
🎯
P. Harres
Hertha BSC 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
T. Ernst
G
42
D. Zeefuik
↓ 80' 🟨 10'
D
44
L. Gechter
D
31
M. Dardai
D
33
M. Karbownik
D
10
M. Cuisance
🟨 5'
M
30
P. Seguin
↓ 87' 🟨 45+1'
M
22
M. Winkler
M
7
J. Brekalo
M
11
F. Reese
🟨 75'
M
18
L. Schuler
↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
35
M. Gersbeck
G
14
M. Krattenmacher
↑ 87'
M
41
P. Klemens
D
37
T. Leistner
D
9
D. Kownacki
↑ 67'
F
27
N. Kolbe
D
8
K. Sessa
M
2
J. Eitschberger
↑ 80'
D
21
B. Mamuzah Lum
M
Holstein Kiel 4-5-1
Starting XI
1
T. Weiner
G
23
L. Rosenboom
🟨 18'
D
13
I. Nekic
🟨 80'
D
26
D. Zec
D
6
M. Ivezic
D
20
A. Kapralik
↓ 87'
M
49
I. Ugoh
↓ 46'
M
28
J. Meffert
🟨 45'
M
15
K. Davidsen
↓ 90+1'
M
8
U. Tohumcu
↓ 90+3' 🟨 90+2'
M
19
P. Harres
🎯 63' ↓ 87'
F
Substitutes
21
J. Krumrey
G
3
M. Komenda
D
43
L. Borges
D
25
M. Muller
↑ 87'
F
29
N. Niehoff
↑ 87'
M
10
J. Therkelsen
⚽ 63' ↑ 46'
M
2
F. Roslyng
↑ 90+3'
D
22
S. Schwab
↑ 90+1'
M
18
A. Jakupovic
F
Last matches: Hertha BSC
17.05.26
2.
Hertha BSC
Arminia Bielefeld
1
6
L
10.05.26
2.
Hertha BSC
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2
1
W
03.05.26
2.
Hertha BSC
1. FC Magdeburg
0
1
L
19.04.26
2.
Hertha BSC
Eintracht Braunschweig
1
1
D
11.04.26
2.
Hertha BSC
1. FC Kaiserslautern
0
1
L
04.04.26
2.
Hertha BSC
Dynamo Dresden
1
0
W
22.03.26
2.
Hertha BSC
Fortuna Düsseldorf
5
2
W
14.03.26
2.
Hertha BSC
VfL Bochum
1
1
D
08.03.26
2.
Hertha BSC
Preußen Münster
2
1
W
01.03.26
2.
Hertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
2
1
W
22.02.26
2.
Hertha BSC
SC Paderborn 07
2
5
L
14.02.26
2.
Hertha BSC
Hannover 96
2
3
L
07.02.26
2.
Hertha BSC
SV Elversberg
3
0
W
01.02.26
2.
Hertha BSC
SV Darmstadt 98
2
2
D
24.01.26
2.
Hertha BSC
Karlsruher SC
2
2
D
17.01.26
2.
Hertha BSC
FC Schalke 04
0
0
D
09.01.26
Fri
Hertha BSC
Standard Liege
2
3
L
19.12.25
2.
Hertha BSC
Arminia Bielefeld
1
1
D
12.12.25
2.
Hertha BSC
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
3
D
07.12.25
2.
Hertha BSC
1. FC Magdeburg
0
2
L
Last matches: Holstein Kiel
17.05.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
Dynamo Dresden
1
2
L
09.05.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
1. FC Magdeburg
1
3
L
02.05.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
0
W
17.04.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
1. FC Kaiserslautern
3
0
W
10.04.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
1
W
05.04.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
Preußen Münster
0
0
D
22.03.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
VfL Bochum
3
2
W
14.03.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
1. FC Nürnberg
2
3
L
07.03.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
SV Darmstadt 98
0
2
L
28.02.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
SV Elversberg
1
1
D
21.02.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
Karlsruher SC
1
3
L
15.02.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
FC Schalke 04
1
2
L
08.02.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
Hannover 96
1
3
L
31.01.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
2
L
23.01.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
2
2
D
18.01.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
SC Paderborn 07
2
0
W
10.01.26
Fri
Holstein Kiel
Ferencvarosi TC
2
0
W
07.01.26
Fri
Holstein Kiel
Servette FC
1
1
D
20.12.25
2.
Holstein Kiel
Dynamo Dresden
2
1
W
13.12.25
2.
Holstein Kiel
1. FC Magdeburg
3
3
D
H2H: Hertha BSC vs Holstein Kiel
25.04.26
H2H
Hertha BSC
Holstein Kiel
0
1
L
29.11.25
H2H
Holstein Kiel
Hertha BSC
0
1
W
01.03.24
H2H
Hertha Berlin
Holstein Kiel
2
2
D
24.09.23
H2H
Holstein Kiel
Hertha Berlin
2
3
W
Last matches: Hertha BSC
10.05.26
2.
Hertha BSC
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2
1
W
11.04.26
2.
Hertha BSC
1. FC Kaiserslautern
0
1
L
14.03.26
2.
Hertha BSC
VfL Bochum
1
1
D
01.03.26
2.
Hertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
2
1
W
14.02.26
2.
Hertha BSC
Hannover 96
2
3
L
01.02.26
2.
Hertha BSC
SV Darmstadt 98
2
2
D
17.01.26
2.
Hertha BSC
FC Schalke 04
0
0
D
09.01.26
Fri
Hertha BSC
Standard Liege
2
3
L
19.12.25
2.
Hertha BSC
Arminia Bielefeld
1
1
D
07.12.25
2.
Hertha BSC
1. FC Magdeburg
0
2
L
21.11.25
2.
Hertha BSC
Eintracht Braunschweig
1
0
W
01.11.25
2.
Hertha BSC
Dynamo Dresden
2
0
W
25.10.25
2.
Hertha BSC
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1
0
W
04.10.25
2.
Hertha BSC
Preußen Münster
2
1
W
20.09.25
2.
Hertha BSC
SC Paderborn 07
0
2
L
29.08.25
2.
Hertha BSC
SV Elversberg
0
2
L
10.08.25
2.
Hertha BSC
Karlsruher SC
0
0
D
18.05.25
2.
Hertha BSC
Hannover 96
1
1
D
04.05.25
2.
Hertha BSC
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
0
W
25.04.25
2.
Hertha BSC
1. FC Magdeburg
1
1
D
H2H at home: Hertha BSC
25.04.26
H2H
Hertha BSC
Holstein Kiel
0
1
L
Last matches: Holstein Kiel
17.05.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
Dynamo Dresden
1
2
L
10.04.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
1
W
22.03.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
VfL Bochum
3
2
W
07.03.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
SV Darmstadt 98
0
2
L
21.02.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
Karlsruher SC
1
3
L
08.02.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
Hannover 96
1
3
L
23.01.26
2.
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
2
2
D
10.01.26
Fri
Holstein Kiel
Ferencvarosi TC
2
0
W
13.12.25
2.
Holstein Kiel
1. FC Magdeburg
3
3
D
07.12.25
2.
Holstein Kiel
Eintracht Braunschweig
1
1
D
23.11.25
2.
Holstein Kiel
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1
4
L
31.10.25
2.
Holstein Kiel
Preußen Münster
1
2
L
19.10.25
2.
Holstein Kiel
1. FC Nürnberg
1
1
D
27.09.25
2.
Holstein Kiel
SV Elversberg
0
1
L
13.09.25
2.
Holstein Kiel
FC Schalke 04
1
0
W
24.08.25
2.
Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2
0
W
02.08.25
2.
Holstein Kiel
SC Paderborn 07
1
2
L
H2H away: Holstein Kiel
25.04.26
H2H
Hertha BSC
Holstein Kiel
0
1
W
01.03.24
H2H
Hertha Berlin
Holstein Kiel
2
2
D

Standings

2. Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 21 7 6 50:31 19 70
W L W W W
2 34 18 8 8 64:39 25 62
W L W D W
3 34 18 8 8 59:45 14 62
W D L L D
4 34 16 12 6 60:44 16 60
D D D W D
5 34 13 13 8 57:45 12 52
L D L D L
6 34 16 4 14 52:47 5 52
W W L L L
7 34 14 9 11 47:44 3 51
L W L L D
8 34 12 10 12 47:45 2 46
D W D W D
9 34 11 11 12 49:47 2 44
W D D W L
10 34 12 8 14 53:64 -11 44
L D W L L
11 34 11 8 15 54:53 1 41
W L W L W
12 34 11 8 15 44:48 -4 41
L L W W W
13 34 10 9 15 53:51 2 39
W L D W D
14 34 12 3 19 52:58 -6 39
L W W L W
15 34 10 7 17 36:54 -18 37
L W L W D
16 34 10 7 17 49:68 -19 37
W L D L W
17 34 11 4 19 33:53 -20 37
L W L W L
18 34 6 12 16 38:61 -23 30
L D D L L
Promotion - Bundesliga
Promotion - Bundesliga (Promotion)
2. Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 3. Liga