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BRAZIL › SERIE B
18.07.2026 00:00
Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo
Referee: Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil
Fortaleza EC
Match Timeline
Novorizontino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
3'
Vitinho
Fortaleza EC
🟨
40'
João Ricardo
Fortaleza EC
🟨
45+1'
Neris
Fortaleza EC
🟨
45+1'
Robson
Novorizontino
🔄
46'
Luiz Fernando ↔ Welliton
Fortaleza EC
🔄
46'
Helio Borges ↔ Juninho
Novorizontino
🟨
56'
Rodriguinho
Fortaleza EC
🔄
61'
Luis Oyama ↔ Tavinho
Novorizontino
🔄
61'
Romulo ↔ Vinicius Paiva
Novorizontino
🟨
64'
Lucas Gazal
Fortaleza EC
🔄
65'
Rodriguinho ↔ Mailton
Fortaleza EC
🔄
65'
Rodrigo ↔ Pierre
Fortaleza EC
🔄
68'
Reidiney ↔ C. Ortiz
Novorizontino
🔄
68'
Robson ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino
🔄
74'
Neris ↔ Luan Freitas
Fortaleza EC
🔄
79'
Pedro Henrique ↔ Paulo Baya
Fortaleza EC

Fortaleza EC vs Novorizontino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
51.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fortaleza EC Win 51.1%
Draw 8.4%
Novorizontino Win 40.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza EC1.08
Novorizontino1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WWDLW
20 GF / 17 GA
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WLDWL
28 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
6
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
10
4.35
Shots on Goal
4.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 17 matches
Novorizontino Novorizontino 17 matches
Fortaleza EC Statistic Novorizontino
8 Wins 8
4 Draws 6
5 Losses 3
20 Goals For 28
17 Goals Against 16
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
6 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 3
4.35 Shots On Goal 4.88
14 Total Shots 13.94
5.18 Corners 5.06
46.5% Ball Possession 47.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Novorizontino. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fortaleza EC expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Novorizontino in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Novorizontino having the stronger overall control.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Fortaleza EC have collected 28 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 20:17 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Juan Miritello (3 goals), Vitinho (3 goals), Luiz Fernando (2 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), Maurício Júnior (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Novorizontino Analysis

Novorizontino approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 30 points after 17 outings. The return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 28:16, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Robson (5 goals), Rômulo (2 goals), Tavinho (2 goals), with creative support from Rômulo (5 assists), Robson (2 assists), Juninho (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza EC won 1 times, Novorizontino won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from Fortaleza EC's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Fortaleza EC 4-1-4-1 / Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Fortaleza EC wins 1, draws 0, Novorizontino wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 32 11 9 12 39:40 -1 42
L D W L D
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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