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ITALY › SERIE A
26.04.2026 10:30
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Referee: L. Marinelli
Fiorentina
Match Timeline
Sassuolo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
30'
Luca Ranieri
Fiorentina
🟨
57'
Rolando Mandragora
Fiorentina
🔄
65'
C. Volpato ↔ L. Lipani
Sassuolo
🔄
66'
J. Harrison ↔ J. Fazzini
Fiorentina
🔄
67'
R. Mandragora ↔ G. Fabbian
Fiorentina
🔄
74'
I. Kone ↔ A. Fadera
Sassuolo
🔄
74'
A. Pinamonti ↔ M. Nzola
Sassuolo
🔄
75'
L. Balbo ↔ P. Comuzzo
Fiorentina
🟨
81'
Armand Laurienté
Sassuolo
🔄
88'
A. Lauriente ↔ L. Moro
Sassuolo
🔄
88'
N. Matic ↔ A. Vranckx
Sassuolo

Fiorentina vs Sassuolo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 81.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 73%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
100%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
81.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
73%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fiorentina Win 48.6%
Draw 0%
Sassuolo Win 51.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fiorentina1.33
Sassuolo1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fiorentina Fiorentina
WWDLW
64 GF / 65 GA
Sassuolo Sassuolo
WLDWL
42 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.34
29
BTTS Yes
18
30
Over 2.5
20
4.04
Shots on Goal
3.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fiorentina Fiorentina 48 matches
Sassuolo Sassuolo 35 matches
Fiorentina Statistic Sassuolo
17 Wins 14
12 Draws 6
19 Losses 15
64 Goals For 42
65 Goals Against 47
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.34
29 BTTS Yes 18
37 Over 1.5 26
30 Over 2.5 20
11 Over 3.5 7
11 Clean Sheets 7
11 Failed To Score 11
4.04 Shots On Goal 3.74
13.46 Total Shots 10.74
4.63 Corners 4.06
51.4% Ball Possession 44.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sassuolo. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Fiorentina Analysis

With 36 points from 33 games and a place of 15, Fiorentina still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 8 wins, 12 draws, and 13 defeats with a 36:44 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Moise Kean (8 goals), R. Mandragora (6 goals), A. Gudmundsson (5 goals), with creative support from A. Gudmundsson (4 assists), R. Mandragora (3 assists), Nicolò Fagioli (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with T. Lamptey, N. Fortini, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic unavailable.

Sassuolo Analysis

Sassuolo are currently 10 in the standings with 45 points from 33 matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 39:43 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Pinamonti (8 goals), Domenico Berardi (7 goals), Ismael Koné (6 goals), with creative support from A. Lauriente (8 assists), Domenico Berardi (4 assists), C. Volpato (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with F. Cande, E. Pieragnolo, F. Romagna, D. Berardi unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fiorentina won 4 times, Sassuolo won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:24 from Fiorentina's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Fiorentina 4-3-3 / Sassuolo 4-3-3
Missing players: Fiorentina 6, Sassuolo 6
H2H summary: Fiorentina wins 4, draws 4, Sassuolo wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B