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NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE
26.04.2026 10:15
Stadion Woudestein
Referee: S. van der Eijk
Excelsior
Match Timeline
Utrecht
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
N. Naujoks · Assist: D. Sanches Fernandes
Excelsior
🟨
29'
Matisse Didden
Utrecht
🟨
31'
Matisse Didden
Utrecht
🟥
31'
Matisse Didden
Utrecht
⚽
36'
D. Sanches Fernandes · Assist: G. de Regt
Excelsior
🔄
41'
A. Stepanov ↔ S. Horemans
Utrecht
🔄
46'
S. El Karouani ↔ E. Adiele
Utrecht
⚽
55'
D. Sanches Fernandes · Assist: A. Zagre
Excelsior
🔄
63'
E. Hansson ↔ S. Wlodarczyk
Excelsior
🟨
64'
Gjivai Zechiël
Utrecht
⚽
69'
I. Yegoian
Excelsior
VAR
72'
Irakli Yegoian
Excelsior
🔄
72'
G. Zechiel ↔ C. Bozdogan
Utrecht
🔄
76'
D. Sanches Fernandes ↔ A. Carlen
Excelsior
🔄
76'
I. Yegoian ↔ I. Bronkhorst
Excelsior
🔄
80'
Y. Cathline ↔ J. Karlsson
Utrecht
🔄
80'
A. Alarcon ↔ D. Min
Utrecht
🔄
85'
N. Naujoks ↔ S. Janssen
Excelsior
🔄
85'
R. Meissen ↔ G. Cairo
Excelsior
⚽
90'
L. Hartjes
Excelsior

Excelsior vs Utrecht Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 84.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 84.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 68.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
84.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
84.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
68.8%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Excelsior Win 3%
Draw 12.3%
Utrecht Win 84.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Excelsior1.12
Utrecht1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Excelsior Excelsior
WWDLW
31 GF / 51 GA
Utrecht Utrecht
WLDWL
68 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
19
BTTS Yes
27
18
Over 2.5
22
4.03
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Excelsior Excelsior 30 matches
Utrecht Utrecht 44 matches
Excelsior Statistic Utrecht
7 Wins 17
7 Draws 10
16 Losses 17
31 Goals For 68
51 Goals Against 55
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
19 BTTS Yes 27
24 Over 1.5 35
18 Over 2.5 22
7 Over 3.5 14
5 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 10
4.03 Shots On Goal 4.43
12.13 Total Shots 12.32
4.03 Corners 4.39
46.7% Ball Possession 41.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Utrecht's more proactive style and Excelsior's more cautious structure. Utrecht seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Utrecht. Excelsior have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Utrecht carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 44 points while Excelsior sit 16 on 28, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Excelsior expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Utrecht in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Utrecht having the stronger overall control.

Excelsior Analysis

With 28 points from 30 games and a place of 16, Excelsior still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 31:51, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Noah Naujoks (8 goals), I. Yegoian (4 goals), Arthur Zagre (3 goals), with creative support from G. de Regt (5 assists), I. Yegoian (2 assists), D. Sanches Fernandes (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with M. Jonathans, S. Henderikx, M. Tielemans unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Utrecht Analysis

From their first 30 matches, Utrecht have collected 44 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 49:36 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Zechiel (8 goals), D. de Wit (5 goals), V. Jensen (5 goals), with creative support from Souffian El Karouani (10 assists), G. Zechiel (4 assists), Y. Cathline (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without S. Haller, V. Jensen, M. Rodriguez, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Excelsior won 2 times, Utrecht won 7 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:26 from Excelsior's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (97%)
Predicted formations: Excelsior 5-4-1 / Utrecht 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Excelsior 3, Utrecht 8
H2H summary: Excelsior wins 2, draws 6, Utrecht wins 7

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5 34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie