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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
04.10.2026 19:00
Estadio Departamental Libertad
Referee: B. Salazar
Deportivo Pasto
Match Timeline
Fortaleza FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
45'
Brandon Mejía ↔ Leonardo Pico
Fortaleza FC
🔄
45'
Patrick Preciado ↔ Matias Pisano
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
57'
Mariano Vázquez ↔ Jhoiner Salas
Fortaleza FC
🟨
62'
Enrique Serje
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
67'
Enrique Serje ↔ Tomás Blandón Vélez
Deportivo Pasto
🟨
69'
Mateo Garavito
Deportivo Pasto
🟨
77'
Jeferson Medina
Fortaleza FC
🔄
78'
Jordan Garcia ↔ Italo Montano Cortes
Fortaleza FC
🔄
78'
Diego Gabriel Chavez ↔ Harrinson Mancilla
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
78'
Jonathan Perlaza ↔ Kevin Daniel Santacruz Andrade
Deportivo Pasto
🔄
85'
Sebastian Navarro ↔ Kevin Balanta
Fortaleza FC
🔄
85'
Santiago Vivas Vélez ↔ Franco Pulicastro
Fortaleza FC
🟨
90+4'
Harrinson Mancilla
Deportivo Pasto

Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 69.8%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.31
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
69.8%
1.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.31 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.2%
1.48 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Pasto Win 48.5%
Draw 21.3%
Fortaleza FC Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Pasto1.33
Fortaleza FC1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
WWDLW
40 GF / 46 GA
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
WLDWL
35 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
16
BTTS Yes
22
16
Over 2.5
16
3.69
Shots on Goal
3.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 33 matches
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 30 matches
Deportivo Pasto Statistic Fortaleza FC
13 Wins 6
6 Draws 13
14 Losses 11
40 Goals For 35
46 Goals Against 45
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
16 BTTS Yes 22
24 Over 1.5 25
16 Over 2.5 16
7 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 5
3.69 Shots On Goal 3.7
11.81 Total Shots 11.5
4.16 Corners 4.23
52.5% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Deportivo Pasto's more proactive style and Fortaleza FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Deportivo Pasto arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 34 points compared to Fortaleza FC in 15 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fortaleza FC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Pasto expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Fortaleza FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza FC having the stronger overall control.

Deportivo Pasto Analysis

Deportivo Pasto come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 34 points from 19 matches. The record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 29:25 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Santiago Córdoba (5 goals), D. Chávez (4 goals), Jonathan Perlaza (2 goals), with creative support from D. Chávez (3 assists), E. Serje (2 assists), M. Gil (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Fortaleza FC Analysis

With 22 points from 19 games and a place of 15, Fortaleza FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 22:27 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Andrés Arroyo (9 goals), Italo Montaño Cortes (3 goals), Richardson Rivas (3 goals), with creative support from Andrés Arroyo (4 assists), S. Navarro (3 assists), Italo Montaño Cortes (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Pasto won 5 times, Fortaleza FC won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:3 from Deportivo Pasto's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.29 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.8%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Pasto 4-4-2 / Fortaleza FC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Deportivo Pasto wins 5, draws 1, Fortaleza FC wins 1

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
D W D L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W D L W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L L W L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D D D D L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D D W W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L D L W D
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W L L D L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W W W D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L W L L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L L L D D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W L W W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D W L L W
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W L L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L D D L
Post season qualification