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IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
09.10.2026 18:45
Tolka Park
Shelbourne
Match Timeline
Sligo Rovers
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
Daniel Kelly · Assist: Ademipo Odubeko
Shelbourne
🟨
27'
Kaiyne Woolery
Sligo Rovers
🟨
28'
Jack Henry-Francis
Shelbourne
⚽
45+1'
Kaiyne Woolery · Assist: Jack Shorrock
Sligo Rovers
⚽
50'
Ademipo Odubeko · Assist: Evan Caffrey
Shelbourne
🔄
52'
Ademipo Odubeko ↔ John Martin
Shelbourne
⚽
52'
John Martin · Assist: Daniel Kelly
Shelbourne
🟨
55'
Odhran Casey
Shelbourne
⚽
57'
Milan Bernhard Mbeng
Shelbourne
🔄
59'
James McManus ↔ Daire Patton
Sligo Rovers
🔄
59'
Archie Meekison ↔ Cian Kavanagh
Sligo Rovers
⚽
59'
John Martin · Assist: Daniel Kelly
Shelbourne
🟨
59'
Milan Bernhard Mbeng
Shelbourne
🔄
60'
Ruben Gillespie ↔ Seb Quirk
Sligo Rovers
🔄
64'
Milan Bernhard Mbeng ↔ Marco Untergrabner
Shelbourne
🔄
64'
Jack Henry-Francis ↔ Alistair Coote
Shelbourne
🔄
65'
A. Gabbidon ↔ Kevin Zefi
Sligo Rovers
🟨
76'
Luke Young
Sligo Rovers
🔄
76'
Daniel Kelly ↔ Sean Boyd
Shelbourne
🔄
76'
James Norris ↔ james roche
Shelbourne
🔄
81'
Kaiyne Woolery ↔ Luke Pearce
Sligo Rovers
🟨
85'
Sean Moore
Shelbourne

Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.1%
Odds 1.27
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.43
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.1%
1.27 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.43 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
2.00 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Shelbourne Win 82.1%
Draw 8.9%
Sligo Rovers Win 8.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shelbourne1.54
Sligo Rovers1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WWDLW
63 GF / 59 GA
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers
WLDWL
37 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
0.95
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.54
31
BTTS Yes
17
27
Over 2.5
19
3.64
Shots on Goal
2.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shelbourne Shelbourne 41 matches
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers 39 matches
Shelbourne Statistic Sligo Rovers
13 Wins 9
16 Draws 8
12 Losses 22
63 Goals For 37
59 Goals Against 60
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.54
31 BTTS Yes 17
33 Over 1.5 27
27 Over 2.5 19
14 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 17
3.64 Shots On Goal 2.56
12.28 Total Shots 9.28
4.58 Corners 3.75
47.5% Ball Possession 45.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sligo Rovers. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Sligo Rovers arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Shelbourne Analysis

Shelbourne sit 6 with 40 points after 32 league matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 13 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 42:45 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Kelly (4 goals), Harry Wood (3 goals), J. Martin (2 goals), with creative support from Harry Wood (5 assists), D. Kelly (1 assists), J. Martin (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses fits a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sligo Rovers Analysis

With 23 points from 32 games and a place of 10, Sligo Rovers still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 19 losses, together with goals at 24:54, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through C. Kavanagh (4 goals), W. Fitzgerald (3 goals), A. Meekison (2 goals), with creative support from W. Fitzgerald (5 assists), A. Meekison (3 assists), C. Kavanagh (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Shelbourne won 9 times, Sligo Rovers won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:12 from Shelbourne's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.1%)
Predicted formations: Shelbourne 4-2-3-1 / Sligo Rovers 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Shelbourne wins 9, draws 4, Sligo Rovers wins 2

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 18 8 6 52:32 20 62
W W L D D
2 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
3 32 17 8 7 57:38 19 59
W W W W W
4 33 10 13 10 47:46 1 43
W D W L L
5 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
6 33 10 11 12 50:55 -5 41
L L L D W
7 32 9 11 12 42:48 -6 38
D L W L D
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 33 8 10 15 39:54 -15 34
L L W W L
10 33 5 8 20 25:59 -34 23
L L L L L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation