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IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
09.10.2026 18:45
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds 2.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.94
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.1%
2.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.70 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
1.94 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.55 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.80 ▥
Probability Distribution
Derry City Win 31%
Draw 3.9%
St Patrick's Athl. Win 65.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derry City1.12
St Patrick's Athl.1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derry City Derry City
WWDLW
49 GF / 52 GA
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
WLDWL
58 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.66
1.37
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
23
BTTS Yes
14
19
Over 2.5
13
4.17
Shots on Goal
5.34

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derry City Derry City 38 matches
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 35 matches
Derry City Statistic St Patrick's Athl.
9 Wins 18
14 Draws 9
15 Losses 8
49 Goals For 58
52 Goals Against 30
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.66
1.37 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
23 BTTS Yes 14
25 Over 1.5 27
19 Over 2.5 13
11 Over 3.5 10
9 Clean Sheets 14
10 Failed To Score 10
4.17 Shots On Goal 5.34
11.86 Total Shots 15.91
5.03 Corners 5.38
48.8% Ball Possession 52.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward St Patrick's Athl.. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Derry City expected to line up in 3-4-3 and St Patrick's Athl. in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward St Patrick's Athl. having the stronger overall control. St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 59 points while Derry City sit 4 on 41, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. St Patrick's Athl. look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Derry City Analysis

Placed 4 with 41 points from 32 outings, Derry City continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 9 wins, 14 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 45:42 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Clarke (5 goals), M. Duffy (4 goals), A. O'Reilly (3 goals), with creative support from J. Clarke (3 assists), M. Duffy (3 assists), A. O'Reilly (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

St Patrick's Athl. Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 59 points after 32 outings. With 17 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 52:25, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Keena (7 goals), R. Edmondson (5 goals), Kian Leavy (4 goals), with creative support from Z. Elbouzedi (4 assists), L. Turner (3 assists), A. Keena (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Derry City won 7 times, St Patrick's Athl. won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:12 from Derry City's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Derry City 3-4-3 / St Patrick's Athl. 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: Derry City wins 7, draws 5, St Patrick's Athl. wins 3

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 18 8 6 52:32 20 62
W W L D D
2 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
3 32 17 8 7 57:38 19 59
W W W W W
4 33 10 13 10 47:46 1 43
W D W L L
5 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
6 33 10 11 12 50:55 -5 41
L L L D W
7 32 9 11 12 42:48 -6 38
D L W L D
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 33 8 10 15 39:54 -15 34
L L W W L
10 33 5 8 20 25:59 -34 23
L L L L L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation