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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
09.10.2026 18:45
Stade Bollaert-Delelis

Lens vs Lyon Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 51.1%
Odds 2.71
BTTS
Yes
Probability 69.9%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.7%
Odds 1.55
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
51.1%
2.71 ▥
BTTS Yes
69.9%
1.44 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.7%
1.55 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.15 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Lens Win 35.3%
Draw 13.7%
Lyon Win 51.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lens1.7
Lyon1.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lens Lens
WWDLW
22 GF / 17 GA
Lyon Lyon
WLDWL
33 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
2.06
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
8
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
10
6.67
Shots on Goal
6.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lens Lens 11 matches
Lyon Lyon 16 matches
Lens Statistic Lyon
5 Wins 9
2 Draws 3
4 Losses 4
22 Goals For 33
17 Goals Against 20
2 Avg Goals Scored 2.06
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
8 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 15
8 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 3
6.67 Shots On Goal 6.1
16.67 Total Shots 13.9
7.33 Corners 5
53% Ball Possession 51.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Lyon's more proactive style and Lens's more cautious structure. Lens appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Lyon. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lyon. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lens expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Lyon in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lyon having the stronger overall control. Lens have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Lyon carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 11 points while Lens sit 15 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Lens Analysis

With 4 points from 5 games and a place of 15, Lens still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 9:9, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through F. Thauvin (3 goals), F. Ivanović (2 goals), A. Sima (1 goals), with creative support from F. Thauvin (2 assists), A. Sima (1 assists), R. Aguilar (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with J. Chavez, Y. Titraoui, S. Abdulhamid unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Lyon Analysis

Lyon come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 11 points after 5 matches. With 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 10:2, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by E. Nuamah (3 goals), Z. Athekame (2 goals), C. Tolisso (1 goals), with creative support from P. Šulc (3 assists), Z. Athekame (2 assists), E. Nuamah (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with J. Duranville, M. Niakhate, N. Tagliafico unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lens won 5 times, Lyon won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:20 from Lens's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: Lens 3-4-2-1 / Lyon 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lens 6, Lyon 4
H2H summary: Lens wins 5, draws 4, Lyon wins 6

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 4 1 0 8:3 5 13
W D W W W
2
Lyon Away
5 3 2 0 10:2 8 11
W D W D W
3 5 3 2 0 8:3 5 11
W D W W D
4 5 3 1 1 8:4 4 10
L W W D W
5 5 3 1 1 8:9 -1 10
L W W W D
6 5 2 2 1 8:7 1 8
W W L D D
7 5 2 1 2 6:5 1 7
W D L W L
8 5 2 1 2 10:10 0 7
L D W W L
9 5 1 3 1 9:9 0 6
W D D L D
10 5 2 0 3 7:12 -5 6
W W L L L
11 5 1 2 2 7:8 -1 5
L L W D D
12 5 1 2 2 5:6 -1 5
L D W L D
13 5 1 2 2 7:9 -2 5
W D L D L
14 5 1 2 2 3:6 -3 5
W L D L D
15
Lens Home
5 1 1 3 9:9 0 4
L D L L W
16 5 1 1 3 4:11 -7 4
L L L W D
17 5 1 0 4 7:8 -1 3
L L L L W
18 5 0 2 3 4:7 -3 2
L D L D L
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