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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
09.05.2026 07:00
Yodoko Sakura Stadium
Referee: K. Nagamine
Cerezo Osaka
Match Timeline
V-varen Nagasaki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
22'
Motoki Hasegawa
V-varen Nagasaki
⚽
25'
R. Yamasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
⚽
28'
Thiago Andrade · Assist: M. Nakajima
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
62'
Dudu Giusti ↔ K. Kushibiki
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
63'
R. Yamasaki ↔ Matheus Jesus
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
63'
N. Campbell ↔ T. Kasayanagi
V-varen Nagasaki
⚽
63'
S. Tanaka · Assist: M. Shibayama
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
71'
M. Hasegawa ↔ Thiago
V-varen Nagasaki
⚽
72'
Matheus Jesus
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
83'
S. Yoneda ↔ T. Matsumoto
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
85'
M. Nakajima ↔ S. Kagawa
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
85'
M. Shibayama ↔ S. Homma
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
85'
Y. Yokoyama ↔ S. Uejo
Cerezo Osaka
🟨
86'
Thiago Santana
V-varen Nagasaki
🟨
86'
Riku Yamada
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
88'
Thiago Andrade ↔ S. Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
🟨
90+11'
Kosuke Nakamura
Cerezo Osaka
VAR
90+2'
Solomon Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
90+11'
N. Ishiwatari ↔ H. Tanaka
Cerezo Osaka
⚽
90'
S. Kagawa
Cerezo Osaka

Cerezo Osaka vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
26%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cerezo Osaka Win 49.6%
Draw 19%
V-varen Nagasaki Win 31.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerezo Osaka1.12
V-varen Nagasaki1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
WWDLW
15 GF / 16 GA
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WLDWL
18 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
8
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
8
3.67
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 16 matches
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 16 matches
Cerezo Osaka Statistic V-varen Nagasaki
4 Wins 7
6 Draws 1
6 Losses 8
15 Goals For 18
16 Goals Against 22
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
8 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 12
7 Over 2.5 8
0 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 4
3.67 Shots On Goal 3.67
10.2 Total Shots 11.33
4.8 Corners 4
50.1% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Cerezo Osaka's more proactive style and V-varen Nagasaki's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward V-varen Nagasaki. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerezo Osaka expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and V-varen Nagasaki in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward V-varen Nagasaki having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. V-varen Nagasaki arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Cerezo Osaka Analysis

Cerezo Osaka come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 22 points after 15 matches. The return of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 18:16, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Thiago Andrade (5 goals), S. Sakuragawa (4 goals), Shunta Tanaka (3 goals), with creative support from M. Shibayama (3 assists), R. Sakata (2 assists), Nelson Ishiwatari (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

With 19 points from 15 games and a place of 10, V-varen Nagasaki still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 9 defeats with a 16:23 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Thiago (6 goals), Matheus Jesus (5 goals), N. Campbell (2 goals), with creative support from Matheus Jesus (2 assists), N. Campbell (2 assists), Motoki Hasegawa (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Cerezo Osaka won 5 times, V-varen Nagasaki won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:9 from Cerezo Osaka's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81%)
Predicted formations: Cerezo Osaka 4-2-3-1 / V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Cerezo Osaka wins 5, draws 0, V-varen Nagasaki wins 3

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)