JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Yodoko Sakura Stadium
Referee: Y. Ohashi
Cerezo Osaka
Match Timeline
Nagoya Grampus
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
S. Tanaka · Assist: M. Shibayama
Cerezo Osaka
22'
Y. Yokoyama · Assist: M. Nakajima
Cerezo Osaka
39'
Y. Yokoyama
Cerezo Osaka
42'
Y. Kimura
Nagoya Grampus
VAR
50'
Yuki Nogami
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
53'
H. Okuda ↔ A. Ohata
Cerezo Osaka
54'
Thiago Andrade · Assist: N. Ishiwatari
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
60'
Y. Yamagishi ↔ K. Nagai
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
60'
T. Uchida ↔ Y. Sato
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
67'
Thiago Andrade ↔ S. Sakuragawa
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
67'
R. Izumi ↔ M. Ono
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
67'
K. Nakayama ↔ H. Koda
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
79'
Ayumu Ohata
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
82'
Y. Yokoyama ↔ S. Kagawa
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
82'
M. Nakajima ↔ S. Homma
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
82'
M. Shibayama ↔ S. Uejo
Cerezo Osaka
🔄
83'
Y. Nogami ↔ S. Mori
Nagoya Grampus
87'
S. Sakuragawa · Assist: S. Homma
Cerezo Osaka
89'
S. Sakuragawa · Assist: S. Homma
Cerezo Osaka

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cerezo Osaka Win 35.9%
Draw 10.4%
Nagoya Grampus Win 53.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerezo Osaka1.09
Nagoya Grampus1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
WWDLW
18 GF / 18 GA
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
WLDWL
28 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
9
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
10
3.94
Shots on Goal
4.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 17 matches
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 16 matches
Cerezo Osaka Statistic Nagoya Grampus
5 Wins 8
6 Draws 5
6 Losses 3
18 Goals For 28
18 Goals Against 18
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
9 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 14
8 Over 2.5 10
1 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 2
3.94 Shots On Goal 4.75
10.88 Total Shots 13.69
5 Corners 5.38
51.1% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nagoya Grampus. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerezo Osaka expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nagoya Grampus in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nagoya Grampus having the stronger overall control. Nagoya Grampus look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cerezo Osaka Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 25 points from 16 games, Cerezo Osaka bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 9 wins, 0 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 21:18, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Thiago Andrade (5 goals), S. Sakuragawa (4 goals), Shunta Tanaka (3 goals), with creative support from M. Shibayama (4 assists), R. Sakata (2 assists), Motohiko Nakajima (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Nagoya Grampus Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 31 points from 16 games, Nagoya Grampus bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 10 wins, 0 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 30:21, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Y. Yamagishi (9 goals), Y. Kimura (7 goals), Hidemasa Koda (2 goals), with creative support from K. Nakayama (7 assists), Teruki Hara (3 assists), Y. Kimura (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerezo Osaka won 6 times, Nagoya Grampus won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:21 from Cerezo Osaka's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.6%)
Predicted formations: Cerezo Osaka 4-2-3-1 / Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Cerezo Osaka wins 6, draws 1, Nagoya Grampus wins 8
Stats
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
3
4 Corner Kicks 3
12 Fouls 5
1 Offsides 6
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Goal 4
2 Shots off Goal 5
4 Blocked Shots 3
10 Shots insidebox 9
5 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
364 Total passes 488
301 Passes accurate 419
2.82 expected_goals 2.05
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Cerezo Osaka
Formation
Nagoya Grampus
K. Nakamura
K. Nakamura
D. Cools
D. Cools
R. Inoue
R. Inoue
S. Hatanaka
S. Hatanaka
H. Okuda
H. Okuda
N. Ishiwatari
🎯
N. Ishiwatari
S. Tanaka
S. Tanaka
M. Shibayama
🎯
M. Shibayama
M. Nakajima
🎯
M. Nakajima
Y. Yokoyama
⚽ 2
Y. Yokoyama
Thiago Andrade
Thiago Andrade
D. Schmidt
D. Schmidt
Y. Nogami
Y. Nogami
H. Fujii
H. Fujii
S. Tokumoto
S. Tokumoto
Y. Asano
Y. Asano
T. Uchida
T. Uchida
T. Takamine
T. Takamine
K. Nakayama
K. Nakayama
R. Izumi
R. Izumi
Y. Kimura
Y. Kimura
Y. Yamagishi
Y. Yamagishi
Cerezo Osaka 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
23
K. Nakamura
G
27
D. Cools
D
4
R. Inoue
D
44
S. Hatanaka
D
16
H. Okuda
↓ 53'
D
18
N. Ishiwatari
🎯 54'
M
10
S. Tanaka
⚽ 12'
M
48
M. Shibayama
🎯 12' ↓ 82'
M
13
M. Nakajima
🎯 22' ↓ 82'
M
14
Y. Yokoyama
⚽ 22' ⚽ 39' ↓ 82'
M
11
Thiago Andrade
⚽ 54' ↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
21
Kim Jin-Hyeon
G
8
S. Kagawa
↑ 82'
M
6
K. Noborizato
D
5
H. Kida
M
19
S. Homma
🎯 87' 🎯 89' ↑ 82'
M
7
S. Uejo
↑ 82'
M
9
S. Sakuragawa
⚽ 87' ⚽ 89' ↑ 67'
F
66
A. Ohata
↑ 53' 🟨 79'
D
3
H. Tanaka
D
Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
D. Schmidt
G
2
Y. Nogami
↓ 83'
D
13
H. Fujii
D
55
S. Tokumoto
D
9
Y. Asano
M
17
T. Uchida
↓ 60'
M
31
T. Takamine
M
27
K. Nakayama
↓ 67'
M
7
R. Izumi
↓ 67'
F
22
Y. Kimura
⚽ 42'
F
11
Y. Yamagishi
↓ 60'
F
Substitutes
35
A. Pisano
G
66
R. Yamanaka
M
18
K. Nagai
↑ 60'
F
41
M. Ono
↑ 67'
M
3
Y. Sato
↑ 60'
D
44
S. Mori
↑ 83'
D
20
K. Mikuni
D
19
H. Koda
↑ 67'
M
30
S. Sugiura
F
Last matches: Cerezo Osaka
06.06.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
3
1
W
30.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
24.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
3
2
W
09.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
06.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
03.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Vissel Kobe
0
0
D
25.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
18.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
1
0
W
04.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
0
3
L
22.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Vissel Kobe
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
1
2
L
14.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
2
1
W
07.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
0
0
D
28.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
22.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
15.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
08.02.26
Fri
Cerezo Osaka
TIAMO Hirakata
1
2
L
07.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
Last matches: Nagoya Grampus
06.06.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
30.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
23.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
4
L
10.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
2
1
W
03.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
W
29.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
19.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
2
3
L
04.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
0
3
L
07.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
5
1
W
01.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
21.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
1
3
L
15.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
08.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
1
0
W
H2H: Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus
17.05.26
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
6
1
W
04.04.26
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
L
04.10.25
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
L
08.03.25
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
30.06.24
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
2
1
W
21.04.24
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
L
26.08.23
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
W
03.06.23
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
3
1
L
05.11.22
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
0
1
L
13.07.22
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
1
2
W
14.05.22
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
1
0
L
27.11.21
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
2
1
W
30.10.21
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
2
0
L
27.10.21
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
0
3
W
08.05.21
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
1
0
L
Last matches: Cerezo Osaka
30.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
FC Tokyo
2
2
D
09.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
03.05.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
18.04.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Vissel Kobe
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Fagiano Okayama
1
2
L
07.03.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-pulse
0
0
D
22.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Cerezo Osaka
TIAMO Hirakata
1
2
L
07.02.26
J1
Cerezo Osaka
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
H2H at home: Cerezo Osaka
17.05.26
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
6
1
W
08.03.25
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
30.06.24
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
2
1
W
26.08.23
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
W
05.11.22
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
0
1
L
27.11.21
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
2
1
W
Last matches: Nagoya Grampus
06.06.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
23.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
4
L
03.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
W
25.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
2
3
L
22.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
07.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
5
1
W
01.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
15.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
H2H away: Nagoya Grampus
17.05.26
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
6
1
L
08.03.25
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
30.06.24
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
2
1
L
26.08.23
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
L
05.11.22
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
0
1
W
27.11.21
H2H
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
2
1
L

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)