ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Parnu Rannastaadion
Referee: G. Osomkov
Vaprus
Match Timeline
Nõmme United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
R. Chanda · Assist: A. Frolov
Nõmme United
12'
M. Lepik
Vaprus
🟨
23'
T. Pajo
Vaprus
🔄
46'
A. Truuvaart ↔ B. Vain
Nõmme United
52'
H. Valja
Vaprus
🔄
64'
G. Kabal ↔ B. Chisala
Nõmme United
🔄
71'
V. Vallik ↔ S. Viidas
Vaprus
72'
B. Chisala · Assist: B. Vain
Nõmme United
82'
Z. Beglarishvili · Assist: B. Chisala
Nõmme United
🔄
86'
T. Pajo ↔ S. Aer
Vaprus
🔄
86'
M. Limberg ↔ J. Poder
Vaprus
🔄
86'
M. Lepik ↔ K. Kauber
Vaprus
🔄
86'
S. Kapper ↔ S. Kolvart
Vaprus
🟨
88'
G. Purg
Nõmme United
🔄
90+2'
H. Jarvelaid ↔ S. Merilai
Nõmme United
🔄
90+2'
O. Dacosta ↔ A. Alteberg
Nõmme United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 76.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 27.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 21.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
76.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
27.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
21.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 39.4%
Draw 23.9%
Nõmme United Win 36.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus2.15
Nõmme United2.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
28 GF / 30 GA
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WLDWL
40 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
2.5
2
Average Goals Conceded
2.56
8
BTTS Yes
13
10
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 15 matches
Nõmme United Nõmme United 16 matches
Vaprus Statistic Nõmme United
5 Wins 7
2 Draws 2
8 Losses 7
28 Goals For 40
30 Goals Against 41
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 2.5
2 Avg Goals Conceded 2.56
8 BTTS Yes 13
13 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 11
3 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nõmme United. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nõmme United having the stronger overall control. Nõmme United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Vaprus Analysis

From their first 9 matches, Vaprus have collected 10 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 9:18 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Valja (4 goals), S. Viidas (3 goals), K. Aloe (1 goals), with creative support from M. Lepik (2 assists), K. Aloe (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nõmme United Analysis

Nõmme United sit 6 with 10 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats with a 20:22 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on O. Dacosta (4 goals), E. Ounapuu (3 goals), Z. Beglarishvili (3 goals), with creative support from Z. Beglarishvili (4 assists), H. Jarvelaid (4 assists), K. Matas (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 7 times, Nõmme United won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:16 from Vaprus's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.91 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.1%)
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 7, draws 1, Nõmme United wins 3

Lineups

Vaprus
Formation
Nõmme United
O. Nomm
O. Nomm
M. Seppik
M. Seppik
M. Lipp
M. Lipp
K. Aloe
K. Aloe
J. Sild
J. Sild
H. Valja
H. Valja
T. Pajo
T. Pajo
V. Vallik
V. Vallik
S. Kapper
S. Kapper
M. Limberg
M. Limberg
M. Lepik
M. Lepik
G. Purg
G. Purg
K. Laanelaid
K. Laanelaid
R. Chanda
R. Chanda
M. Palts
M. Palts
A. Truuvaart
A. Truuvaart
G. Kabal
G. Kabal
A. Frolov
🎯
A. Frolov
H. Jarvelaid
H. Jarvelaid
Z. Beglarishvili
Z. Beglarishvili
O. Dacosta
O. Dacosta
K. Matas
K. Matas
Vaprus 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
O. Nomm
43
M. Seppik
28
M. Lipp
15
K. Aloe
90
J. Sild
20
H. Valja
⚽ 52'
8
T. Pajo
↓ 86' 🟨 23'
7
V. Vallik
↓ 71'
17
S. Kapper
↓ 86'
42
M. Limberg
↓ 86'
22
M. Lepik
⚽ 12' ↓ 86'
Substitutes
1
H. Vainu
3
K. Rand
5
S. Aer
↑ 86'
9
J. Poder
↑ 86'
10
S. Viidas
↑ 71'
11
K. Kauber
↑ 86'
14
R. Orm
19
A. Korre
47
S. Kolvart
↑ 86'
64
J. Allas
86
R. Roosson
Nõmme United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
71
G. Purg
🟨 88'
23
K. Laanelaid
55
R. Chanda
⚽ 10'
6
M. Palts
13
A. Truuvaart
↓ 46'
24
G. Kabal
↓ 64'
10
A. Frolov
🎯 10'
45
H. Jarvelaid
↓ 90+2'
49
Z. Beglarishvili
⚽ 82'
16
O. Dacosta
↓ 90+2'
20
K. Matas
Substitutes
1
G. Lagus
3
S. Merilai
↑ 90+2'
4
A. Alteberg
↑ 90+2'
8
B. Vain
🎯 72' ↑ 46'
11
B. Chisala
⚽ 72' 🎯 82' ↑ 64'
12
M. Marmei
21
R. Kranberg
22
A. Radomskiy
Last matches: Vaprus
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
Last matches: Nõmme United
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
3
D
01.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
H2H: Vaprus vs Nõmme United
02.05.26
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
14.03.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
L
12.02.25
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
7
0
W
19.10.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Vaprus
0
2
W
13.07.24
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
0
W
31.05.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Vaprus
2
1
L
26.04.24
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
1
W
25.11.20
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
4
1
W
23.08.20
H2H
Nõmme United
Vaprus
0
3
W
06.08.20
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
0
W
02.07.20
H2H
Nõmme United
Vaprus
2
2
D
Last matches: Vaprus
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
H2H at home: Vaprus
02.05.26
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
12.02.25
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
7
0
W
13.07.24
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
0
W
26.04.24
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
1
W
25.11.20
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
4
1
W
06.08.20
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
0
W
Last matches: Nõmme United
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
3
D
24.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
4
3
W
18.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
4
2
W
H2H away: Nõmme United
02.05.26
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
W
12.02.25
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
7
0
L
13.07.24
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
0
L
26.04.24
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
1
L
25.11.20
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
4
1
L
06.08.20
H2H
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
0
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga