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SPAIN › LA LIGA
23.05.2026 19:00
Estadio de Mestalla
Referee: A. Cordero
Valencia
Match Timeline
Barcelona
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
R. Araujo ↔ X. Espart
Barcelona
🔄
52'
D. Lopez ↔ L. Ramazani
Valencia
⚽
61'
R. Lewandowski · Assist: F. Torres
Barcelona
🔄
62'
D. Olmo ↔ F. de Jong
Barcelona
🔄
62'
E. Garcia ↔ A. Christensen
Barcelona
🟨
63'
César Tárrega
Valencia
🟨
65'
Unai Núñez
Valencia
⚽
66'
J. Guerra
Valencia
🟨
70'
Andreas Christensen
Barcelona
⚽
71'
L. Rioja
Valencia
VAR
79'
Jesús Vázquez
Valencia
🟨
79'
Marc Bernal
Barcelona
🔄
80'
H. Duro ↔ U. Sadiq
Valencia
🔄
80'
J. Vazquez ↔ T. Rendall
Valencia
🔄
83'
F. Torres ↔ J. Cancelo
Barcelona
🔄
83'
M. Bernal ↔ M. Casado
Barcelona
🔄
90+7'
J. Guerra ↔ A. Almeida
Valencia
⚽
90'
G. Rodriguez
Valencia

Valencia vs Barcelona Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
71.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Valencia Win 25.8%
Draw 3.1%
Barcelona Win 71.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valencia1.21
Barcelona2.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valencia Valencia
WWDLW
55 GF / 57 GA
Barcelona Barcelona
WLDWL
135 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
2.5
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
22
BTTS Yes
32
18
Over 2.5
40
3.33
Shots on Goal
6.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valencia Valencia 42 matches
Barcelona Barcelona 54 matches
Valencia Statistic Barcelona
16 Wins 42
10 Draws 3
16 Losses 9
55 Goals For 135
57 Goals Against 58
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 2.5
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
22 BTTS Yes 32
34 Over 1.5 50
18 Over 2.5 40
9 Over 3.5 21
12 Clean Sheets 18
9 Failed To Score 4
3.33 Shots On Goal 6.93
11.62 Total Shots 17.98
4.88 Corners 6.67
48% Ball Possession 67.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Barcelona's more proactive style and Valencia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Barcelona look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valencia expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Barcelona in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Barcelona having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Barcelona carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 94 points while Valencia sit 9 on 46, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Barcelona.

Valencia Analysis

Valencia are currently 9 in the standings with 46 points from 37 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 43:54 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by H. Duro (10 goals), L. Ramazani (6 goals), D. Lopez (4 goals), with creative support from Javier Guerra (6 assists), L. Rioja (6 assists), F. Ugrinic (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Barcelona Analysis

Barcelona approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 94 points after 37 outings. With 31 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 94:33, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by F. Torres (16 goals), Lamine Yamal (16 goals), R. Lewandowski (13 goals), with creative support from Lamine Yamal (11 assists), F. Lopez (9 assists), Pedri (9 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 12 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Valencia won 2 times, Barcelona won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:45 from Valencia's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 4.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.9%)
Predicted formations: Valencia 4-4-2 / Barcelona 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Valencia 7, Barcelona 3
H2H summary: Valencia wins 2, draws 2, Barcelona wins 11

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2