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NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE
21.05.2026 19:00
Stadion Galgenwaard
Referee: J. van der Laan
Utrecht
Match Timeline
Heerenveen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
45'
A. Engwanda ↔ S. Horemans
Utrecht
⚽
46'
A. Stepanov
Utrecht
🟨
49'
Marcus Linday
Heerenveen
⚽
54'
D. Vente · Assist: J. van Overeem
Heerenveen
⚽
56'
M. van der Hoorn · Assist: S. El Karouani
Utrecht
⚽
58'
S. El Karouani · Assist: N. Vesterlund
Utrecht
🔄
65'
A. Stepanov ↔ S. Haller
Utrecht
🔄
69'
L. Oyen ↔ L. Nordas
Heerenveen
⚽
77'
J. Trenskow · Assist: D. Vente
Heerenveen
🔄
78'
M. Linday ↔ L. Brouwers
Heerenveen
🔄
80'
M. Eerdhuijzen ↔ N. Viergever
Utrecht
🔄
80'
J. Karlsson ↔ A. Blake
Utrecht

Utrecht vs Heerenveen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 38.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 40.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
38.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
40.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Utrecht Win 65.1%
Draw 12.8%
Heerenveen Win 22.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Utrecht1.55
Heerenveen1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Utrecht Utrecht
WWDLW
74 GF / 61 GA
Heerenveen Heerenveen
WLDWL
57 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
28
BTTS Yes
22
24
Over 2.5
24
4.58
Shots on Goal
5.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Utrecht Utrecht 48 matches
Heerenveen Heerenveen 34 matches
Utrecht Statistic Heerenveen
20 Wins 14
10 Draws 9
18 Losses 11
74 Goals For 57
61 Goals Against 53
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
28 BTTS Yes 22
39 Over 1.5 32
24 Over 2.5 24
15 Over 3.5 13
11 Clean Sheets 5
11 Failed To Score 8
4.58 Shots On Goal 5.35
12.75 Total Shots 14.94
4.42 Corners 5.56
42.6% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Utrecht appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Heerenveen. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Heerenveen controlled more possession in the first leg (60% against 40%). Utrecht were also more accurate in attack, recording 4 shots on target to 3. Heerenveen circulated the ball more often, making 603 passes to 397 and completing 530. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Heerenveen. Utrecht come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Utrecht Analysis

Utrecht enter this tie with a season profile built on 53 points from 34 matches, placing them 6 in their league. The return of 15 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 55:42 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking influence is driven by G. Zechiel (8 goals), D. de Wit (7 goals), V. Jensen (5 goals), with creative support from Souffian El Karouani (11 assists), G. Zechiel (7 assists), Y. Cathline (4 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the return of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. Although they are without V. Jensen, M. Rodriguez, O. Agougil, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

Heerenveen Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Heerenveen arrive from a league campaign that has them 8 with 51 points after 34 matches. With 14 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses plus a goal ratio of 57:53, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on J. Trenskow (12 goals), D. Vente (7 goals), L. Nordas (6 goals), with creative support from Joris van Overeem (9 assists), J. Trenskow (5 assists), L. Brouwers (4 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with L. Smans, A. van Axel Dongen, M. Rivera unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Utrecht won 9 times, Heerenveen won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:15 from Utrecht's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.2%)
Predicted formations: Utrecht 4-2-3-1 / Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Utrecht 9, Heerenveen 3
H2H summary: Utrecht wins 9, draws 5, Heerenveen wins 1

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5 34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie