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BRAZIL › SERIE A
20.09.2026 00:00
Estadio Do MorumBIS
Referee: B. Arleu
Sao Paulo
Match Timeline
Internacional
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
15'
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
🟨
19'
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
🟨
20'
Matheus Bahia
Internacional
🟨
34'
Bruno Henrique
Internacional
🔄
39'
D. Duarte ↔ Sabino
Sao Paulo
🔄
46'
Bruno Henrique ↔ Thiago Maia
Internacional
🔄
46'
Matheus Bahia ↔ Allex
Internacional
🔄
64'
Luciano ↔ Danielzinho
Sao Paulo
🔄
70'
Vitinho ↔ B. Aguirre
Internacional
🔄
73'
Pedro Lima ↔ Lucas Ramon
Sao Paulo
🔄
73'
Jonathan Calleri ↔ Ferreira
Sao Paulo
🔄
73'
Artur ↔ Andre Silva
Sao Paulo
🔄
79'
Paulinho Paula ↔ A. Sanabria
Internacional
🟨
84'
Paulo César Pezzolano Suárez
Internacional
🔄
88'
J. Carbonero ↔ N. Eliasson
Internacional
🟨
90+3'
Gabriel Mercado
Internacional

Sao Paulo vs Internacional Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.6%
Odds 2.01
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 2.05
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.28
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.6%
2.01 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
2.05 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.28 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.26 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sao Paulo Win 68.6%
Draw 5.9%
Internacional Win 25.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sao Paulo1.23
Internacional1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WWDLW
31 GF / 30 GA
Internacional Internacional
WLDWL
30 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
15
BTTS Yes
16
10
Over 2.5
11
4.19
Shots on Goal
4.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 26 matches
Internacional Internacional 27 matches
Sao Paulo Statistic Internacional
9 Wins 6
6 Draws 10
11 Losses 11
31 Goals For 30
30 Goals Against 35
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
15 BTTS Yes 16
20 Over 1.5 20
10 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 8
4.19 Shots On Goal 4.41
13.15 Total Shots 14.7
6.69 Corners 6.19
53.4% Ball Possession 47.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Sao Paulo's more proactive style and Internacional's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Sao Paulo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 10 with 33 points compared to Internacional in 18 on 28, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sao Paulo expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Internacional in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Internacional having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Internacional. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Sao Paulo Analysis

From their first 26 matches, Sao Paulo have collected 33 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 31:30 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Luciano (7 goals), J. Calleri (5 goals), Ferreira (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Luciano (2 assists), Artur (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Internacional Analysis

Internacional sit 18 with 28 points after 27 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 30:35, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Carbonero (7 goals), A. Bernabéi (4 goals), Alan Patrick (4 goals), with creative support from J. Carbonero (4 assists), Alerrandro (3 assists), Vitinho (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sao Paulo won 6 times, Internacional won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:19 from Sao Paulo's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1 / Internacional 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Sao Paulo 5, Internacional 5
H2H summary: Sao Paulo wins 6, draws 4, Internacional wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 7 4 57:25 32 61
D W W W W
2 29 17 9 3 48:21 27 60
W D W D D
3 29 14 9 6 48:36 12 51
W W L W D
4 29 14 8 7 45:34 11 50
D W D L D
5 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
6 29 12 10 7 43:36 7 46
L L W W W
7 29 12 8 9 39:34 5 44
D W D W L
8 29 11 9 9 45:43 2 42
D W W W W
9 29 10 8 11 37:47 -10 38
L L D L W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 29 10 6 13 33:34 -1 36
L L W L W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 29 9 8 12 42:47 -5 35
L L W D D
14 28 9 7 12 36:42 -6 34
W W W L W
15 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
16 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 29 5 9 15 33:48 -15 24
D L L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B