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20.04.2026 22:30
Pedro Bidegain
Referee: Leandro Rey Hilfer, Argentina
San Lorenzo
Match Timeline
Velez Sarsfield
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Lisandro Magallan
Velez Sarsfield
🟨
57'
Facundo Gulli
San Lorenzo
🔄
64'
A. Cuello ↔ L. Vietto
San Lorenzo
🔄
64'
F. Gulli ↔ F. Perruzzi
San Lorenzo
🟨
66'
Lautaro Montenegro
San Lorenzo
🔄
71'
L. Magallan ↔ A. Quiros
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
74'
M. Reali ↔ N. Barrios
San Lorenzo
🔄
79'
M. Lanzini ↔ R. Aliendro
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
79'
F. Monzon ↔ D. Godoy
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
85'
R. Auzmendi ↔ D. Herazo
San Lorenzo
🔄
85'
M. De Ritis ↔ A. Ladstatter
San Lorenzo

San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 73.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
73.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.1%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
San Lorenzo Win 40.4%
Draw 9.2%
Velez Sarsfield Win 50.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Lorenzo1.01
Velez Sarsfield1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
WWDLW
17 GF / 12 GA
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
WLDWL
19 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
1.36
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
5
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
4
3
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 14 matches
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 14 matches
San Lorenzo Statistic Velez Sarsfield
5 Wins 8
6 Draws 4
3 Losses 2
17 Goals For 19
12 Goals Against 10
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
5 BTTS Yes 7
7 Over 1.5 8
3 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 2
8 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 2
3 Shots On Goal 4
9.23 Total Shots 11.38
3.77 Corners 3.69
49.7% Ball Possession 53.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Velez Sarsfield. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Lorenzo expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Velez Sarsfield in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Velez Sarsfield having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Velez Sarsfield carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 141 points while San Lorenzo sit 16 on 114, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

San Lorenzo Analysis

San Lorenzo sit 16 with 114 points after 86 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of - wins, - draws, and - defeats with a 0:0 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Cuello (4 goals), G. Rodriguez (2 goals), L. Vietto (2 goals), with creative support from A. Cuello (3 assists), Facundo Gulli (2 assists), M. De Ritis (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Velez Sarsfield Analysis

Velez Sarsfield arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 141 points after 86 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted - wins, - draws, and - losses, while the 0:0 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Florián Monzón (3 goals), M. Lanzini (3 goals), M. Pellegrini (3 goals), with creative support from D. Godoy (3 assists), D. Valdes (3 assists), M. Pellegrini (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, San Lorenzo won 5 times, Velez Sarsfield won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:9 from San Lorenzo's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.46 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
Predicted formations: San Lorenzo 3-4-2-1 / Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: San Lorenzo wins 5, draws 5, Velez Sarsfield wins 3

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
D W L W L
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
D W W W D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D W D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L W L D
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
L W D W L
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
D W W W L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
W L L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L L L W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
D W W W L
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W W D W L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D L D W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
D D L L D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D D D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D W D D D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D L D
Knockout Phase