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POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
16.05.2026 18:15
Stadion im. Braci Czachorów
Referee: K. Arys
Radomiak Radom
Match Timeline
Lech Poznan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
J. Grzesik · Assist: V. Lopes
Radomiak Radom
🔄
11'
Leandro ↔ Maurides
Radomiak Radom
⚽
16'
M. Ishak · Assist: L. Palma
Lech Poznan
⚽
22'
L. Palma · Assist: L. Bengtsson
Lech Poznan
🟨
54'
Antoni Kozubal
Lech Poznan
⚽
58'
P. Walemark · Assist: M. Ishak
Lech Poznan
🔄
65'
V. Lopes ↔ Joao Pedro
Radomiak Radom
🔄
66'
E. Balde ↔ S. Soumah
Radomiak Radom
🔄
66'
L. Palma ↔ F. Jagiello
Lech Poznan
🔄
66'
P. Walemark ↔ D. Hakans
Lech Poznan
🟨
69'
Leo Bengtsson
Lech Poznan
🔄
78'
P. Rodriguez ↔ R. Murawski
Lech Poznan
🔄
78'
L. Bengtsson ↔ T. Ismaheel
Lech Poznan
🟨
83'
Christos Donis
Radomiak Radom
🔄
84'
R. Baro ↔ R. Alves
Radomiak Radom
🔄
84'
C. Donis ↔ A. Zabicki
Radomiak Radom
🔄
84'
M. Ishak ↔ Y. Agnero
Lech Poznan
🟨
90+4'
Roberto Alves
Radomiak Radom
🟨
90+3'
Yannick Agnero
Lech Poznan

Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Radomiak Radom Win 32.7%
Draw 3.3%
Lech Poznan Win 63.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Radomiak Radom1.46
Lech Poznan1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom
WWDLW
49 GF / 44 GA
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
WLDWL
88 GF / 65 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.83
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
22
BTTS Yes
33
18
Over 2.5
31
4.13
Shots on Goal
5.52

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 32 matches
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 48 matches
Radomiak Radom Statistic Lech Poznan
11 Wins 24
11 Draws 13
10 Losses 11
49 Goals For 88
44 Goals Against 65
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.83
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
22 BTTS Yes 33
26 Over 1.5 38
18 Over 2.5 31
13 Over 3.5 20
6 Clean Sheets 14
6 Failed To Score 4
4.13 Shots On Goal 5.52
14 Total Shots 15.63
4.63 Corners 5.17
50.8% Ball Possession 52.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lech Poznan. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Radomiak Radom expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Lech Poznan in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lech Poznan having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Radomiak Radom Analysis

Radomiak Radom sit 8 with 44 points after 32 league matches. The record of 11 wins, 11 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 49:44 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Maurides (8 goals), Abdoul Tapsoba (6 goals), Capita (6 goals), with creative support from R. Wolski (7 assists), J. Grzesik (5 assists), Zie Ouattara (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Lech Poznan Analysis

Lech Poznan approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 56 points after 32 outings. They have recorded 15 wins, 11 draws, and 6 losses, with a 57:42 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on M. Ishak (15 goals), Luis Palma (8 goals), Ali Gholizadeh (6 goals), with creative support from Luis Palma (5 assists), J. Pereira (5 assists), M. Ishak (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Radomiak Radom won 1 times, Lech Poznan won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:19 from Radomiak Radom's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
Predicted formations: Radomiak Radom 4-1-4-1 / Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Radomiak Radom wins 1, draws 5, Lech Poznan wins 5

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation