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15.10.2026 18:00
King Abdullah Sports City

Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Nassr Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win 53.6%
Draw 4.2%
Al-Nassr Win 42.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Al-Ahli Jeddah1.7
Al-Nassr1.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah
WWDLW
25 GF / 22 GA
Al-Nassr Al-Nassr
WLDWL
21 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.92
Average Goals Scored
1.91
1.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
7
BTTS Yes
7
10
Over 2.5
8
5.25
Shots on Goal
6.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah 13 matches
Al-Nassr Al-Nassr 11 matches
Al-Ahli Jeddah Statistic Al-Nassr
5 Wins 6
2 Draws 1
6 Losses 4
25 Goals For 21
22 Goals Against 15
1.92 Avg Goals Scored 1.91
1.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
7 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 11
10 Over 2.5 8
9 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 1
5.25 Shots On Goal 6.29
13.63 Total Shots 16.43
3.5 Corners 8.29
47% Ball Possession 56.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Al-Nassr carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 16 points while Al-Ahli Jeddah sit 6 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Al-Nassr in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Al-Nassr having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Al-Nassr. Al-Ahli Jeddah have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Al-Ahli Jeddah Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah sit 6 with 12 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 16:10, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through I. Toney (10 goals), Trincão (3 goals), E. Spertsyan (1 goals), with creative support from Trincão (2 assists), E. Spertsyan (2 assists), Saad Yaslam (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Al-Nassr Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 16 points from 7 games, Al-Nassr bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 16:7, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Ângelo (2 goals), S. Mané (2 goals), Abdulelah Al Amri (2 goals), with creative support from Ângelo (2 assists), João Félix (2 assists), S. Mané (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2 times, Al-Nassr won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:27 from Al-Ahli Jeddah's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-2-3-1 / Al-Nassr 4-4-2
H2H summary: Al-Ahli Jeddah wins 2, draws 5, Al-Nassr wins 8

Standings

Saudi Professional League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 0 1 23:5 18 18
W L W W W
2 7 5 2 0 12:6 6 17
W W W D W
3 7 5 1 1 16:7 9 16
D W L W W
4 7 5 1 1 16:8 8 16
D W W W W
5 7 5 0 2 13:6 7 15
W W W L L
6 7 4 0 3 16:10 6 12
W L W L L
7 7 3 3 1 12:10 2 12
L W D W D
8 7 3 2 2 7:5 2 11
D W L W D
9 7 3 2 2 11:11 0 11
D D W L L
10 7 2 2 3 7:9 -2 8
L W D D L
11 7 2 2 3 8:16 -8 8
W D L W D
12 7 1 3 3 7:11 -4 6
D L D W D
13 7 0 5 2 3:10 -7 5
D D L L D
14 7 0 4 3 6:11 -5 4
D L L D D
15 7 0 3 4 4:11 -7 3
L L D D D
16 7 0 3 4 5:13 -8 3
L D D L D
17 7 0 3 4 3:12 -9 3
L L D L D
18 7 0 2 5 5:13 -8 2
D L L L D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2
Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League
Relegation - Division 1