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MEXICO › LIGA MX
16.09.2026 01:00
Puebla
FT
0 - 1
Toluca
Estadio Cuauhtémoc
Referee: Adonai Escobedo Gonzalez, Mexico
Puebla
Match Timeline
Toluca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
F. Romero ↔ V. Guzman
Toluca
🟨
57'
Ignacio Maestro Puch
Puebla
🔄
59'
E. del Villar ↔ Helinho
Toluca
🔄
59'
J. Angulo ↔ J. Diaz Price
Toluca
⚽
69'
J. R. Pachuca Martinez
Toluca
🔄
72'
C. Baltazar ↔ H. Jurado
Puebla
🔄
75'
B. Garnica ↔ O. F. Moreno Villegas
Puebla
🔄
77'
F. Vinas ↔ Luan
Toluca
VAR
90'
Mathías Tomás
Puebla
🟨
90'
Bruno Méndez
Toluca
🔄
90+4'
F. Monarrez ↔ O. Villa
Puebla
🔄
90+4'
J. R. Pachuca Martinez ↔ I. Moreno
Puebla
🔄
90+4'
A. Organista ↔ A. Herrera
Puebla
🔄
90+6'
Paulinho ↔ O. Virgen
Toluca

Puebla vs Toluca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 62.9%
Odds 2.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.62
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
62.9%
2.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.75 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.62 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.21 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
9.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
17.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Puebla Win 44.2%
Draw 18.7%
Toluca Win 37.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Puebla1.53
Toluca2.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Puebla Puebla
WWDLW
18 GF / 16 GA
Toluca Toluca
WLDWL
39 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.8
Average Goals Scored
2.44
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
7
BTTS Yes
9
6
Over 2.5
12
4.86
Shots on Goal
6.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Puebla Puebla 10 matches
Toluca Toluca 16 matches
Puebla Statistic Toluca
6 Wins 9
1 Draws 3
3 Losses 4
18 Goals For 39
16 Goals Against 18
1.8 Avg Goals Scored 2.44
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
7 BTTS Yes 9
8 Over 1.5 14
6 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 6
1 Failed To Score 2
4.86 Shots On Goal 6.5
13.29 Total Shots 18.29
4.71 Corners 5
39.3% Ball Possession 59.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Puebla won 4 times, Toluca won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:24 from Puebla's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.3%)
Predicted formations: Puebla 4-4-2 / Toluca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Puebla wins 4, draws 6, Toluca wins 5

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Toluca Away
10 6 2 2 23:12 11 20
D L W W W
2
Club America
9 6 2 1 21:10 11 20
W D L W W
3
Guadalajara Chivas
10 5 3 2 17:10 7 18
L D W W D
4
Club Queretaro
9 5 2 2 13:8 5 17
W D W W L
5
Leon
10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W D W L D
6
Atlas
10 5 2 3 16:17 -1 17
W D L D L
7
Cruz Azul
10 5 1 4 19:18 1 16
D L W W W
8
Club Tijuana
9 4 2 3 14:13 1 14
L D L W L
9
Puebla Home
10 4 2 4 11:12 -1 14
L D L W L
10
Monterrey
9 4 1 4 16:14 2 13
L W D L L
11
CF Pachuca
10 3 3 4 15:11 4 12
L D W W D
12
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
10 3 3 4 14:16 -2 12
L D L W L
13
Atletico San Luis
10 3 3 4 14:18 -4 12
W W L L W
14
Atlante FC
10 2 5 3 12:15 -3 11
W D L D D
15
Tigres UANL
10 2 4 4 10:13 -3 10
W L D D D
16
Santos Laguna
10 3 1 6 10:15 -5 10
W W W L D
17
Necaxa
10 2 2 6 12:20 -8 8
L L L D L
18
FC Juarez
10 1 0 9 7:25 -18 3
L W L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)