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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
10.10.2026 01:10
Estadio Palogrande
Referee: Andres Rojas

Once Caldas vs Llaneros Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.4%
Odds 1.53
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.91
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.4%
1.53 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
2.10 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.91 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.18 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.30 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Once Caldas Win 57.4%
Draw 17.6%
Llaneros Win 25%
Expected Goals (xG)
Once Caldas1.3
Llaneros1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Once Caldas Once Caldas
WWDLW
49 GF / 42 GA
Llaneros Llaneros
WLDWL
32 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
25
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
10
5.73
Shots on Goal
3.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Once Caldas Once Caldas 35 matches
Llaneros Llaneros 32 matches
Once Caldas Statistic Llaneros
11 Wins 8
16 Draws 12
8 Losses 12
49 Goals For 32
42 Goals Against 37
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
25 BTTS Yes 17
28 Over 1.5 24
15 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 8
5.73 Shots On Goal 3.81
14.97 Total Shots 10.58
5.21 Corners 4.94
53.5% Ball Possession 46.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Once Caldas's more proactive style and Llaneros's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Llaneros. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Once Caldas expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Llaneros in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Llaneros having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Once Caldas arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 33 points compared to Llaneros in 14 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Once Caldas Analysis

With 33 points from 19 games and a place of 5, Once Caldas still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 2 defeats, and the 31:22 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on D. Moreno (13 goals), J. Zapata (12 goals), Pipe Gómez (4 goals), with creative support from J. Cuesta (8 assists), A. Roa (4 assists), A. Correa (4 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Llaneros Analysis

With 22 points from 19 games and a place of 14, Llaneros still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 17:20, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through N. Ospina (6 goals), J. Vásquez (6 goals), F. Meza (3 goals), with creative support from N. Ospina (4 assists), J. Ramírez (4 assists), J. Vásquez (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Once Caldas won 1 times, Llaneros won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from Once Caldas's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.4%)
Predicted formations: Once Caldas 4-2-3-1 / Llaneros 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Once Caldas wins 1, draws 1, Llaneros wins 1

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
D W D L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W D L W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L L W L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D D D D L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D W W D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L D L W D
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W L L D L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W W W D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L W L L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L L L D D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W L W W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D W L L W
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W L L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L D D L
Post season qualification