MEXICO › LIGA MX
10.10.2026 01:00
Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Puebla vs Leon Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Puebla Win 52.9%
Draw 5.9%
Leon Win 41.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Puebla1.42
Leon1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Puebla Puebla
WWDLW
19 GF / 19 GA
Leon Leon
WLDWL
26 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.86
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
8
BTTS Yes
9
6
Over 2.5
7
4.1
Shots on Goal
5.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Puebla Puebla 13 matches
Leon Leon 14 matches
Puebla Statistic Leon
6 Wins 7
2 Draws 3
5 Losses 4
19 Goals For 26
19 Goals Against 19
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.86
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
8 BTTS Yes 9
9 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 2
4.1 Shots On Goal 5.5
12.9 Total Shots 13.8
4.5 Corners 3.8
41.6% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Leon's more proactive style and Puebla's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Leon. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Puebla have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Puebla expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Leon in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leon having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Puebla Analysis

Puebla sit 9 with 14 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 11:12, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Tomás (2 goals), I. Maestro Puch (1 goals), Eduardo Mustre (1 goals), with creative support from A. Herrera (2 assists), I. Maestro Puch (1 assists), Eduardo Mustre (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Leon Analysis

Placed 5 with 17 points from 10 outings, Leon continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 14:11 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Arcila (3 goals), D. Cambindo (3 goals), J. Alvarado (2 goals), with creative support from J. Alvarado (1 assists), J. Romaña (1 assists), F. Beltrán (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Puebla won 6 times, Leon won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:22 from Puebla's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: Puebla 4-2-3-1 / Leon 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Puebla wins 6, draws 2, Leon wins 7

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 23:12 11 20
D L W W W
2 9 6 2 1 21:10 11 20
W D L W W
3 10 5 3 2 17:10 7 18
L D W W D
4 9 5 2 2 13:8 5 17
W D W W L
5
Leon Away
10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W D W L D
6 10 5 2 3 16:17 -1 17
W D L D L
7 10 5 1 4 19:18 1 16
D L W W W
8 9 4 2 3 14:13 1 14
L D L W L
9 10 4 2 4 11:12 -1 14
L D L W L
10 9 4 1 4 16:14 2 13
L W D L L
11 10 3 3 4 15:11 4 12
L D W W D
12 10 3 3 4 14:16 -2 12
L D L W L
13 10 3 3 4 14:18 -4 12
W W L L W
14 10 2 5 3 12:15 -3 11
W D L D D
15 10 2 4 4 10:13 -3 10
W L D D D
16 10 3 1 6 10:15 -5 10
W W W L D
17 10 2 2 6 12:20 -8 8
L L L D L
18 10 1 0 9 7:25 -18 3
L W L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)