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16.08.2026 16:30
Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas
Referee: Juan Ignacio Lara Luco, Chile
Nublense
Match Timeline
Union La Calera
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
22'
S. Valencia · Assist: M. Plaza
Nublense
🟨
40'
Daniel Gutiérrez
Union La Calera
⚽
44'
S. Valencia · Assist: M. Rivera
Nublense
🔄
46'
C. Villanueva ↔ B. Oyarzo Munoz
Union La Calera
🟨
47'
Brian Nicolas Ferreyra
Union La Calera
🔄
64'
C. Moya ↔ Y. Leiva
Union La Calera
🔄
64'
B. Ferreyra ↔ F. Pozzo
Union La Calera
🔄
65'
L. Molina Canto ↔ I. Tapia
Nublense
🔄
65'
G. Graciani ↔ E. Calderon
Nublense
⚽
77'
C. Diaz · Assist: K. Mendez
Union La Calera
🔄
78'
Y. W. Andia Leon ↔ J. Cruz
Union La Calera
🔄
80'
↔ I. Jeraldino
Nublense
🔄
85'
D. Gutierrez ↔ C. Gutierrez
Union La Calera
🔄
87'
D. Sanhueza ↔ F. Campos Mosqueira
Nublense
🔄
87'
M. Rivera ↔ D. Cespedes
Nublense

Nublense vs Union La Calera Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nublense Win 63.6%
Draw 3.8%
Union La Calera Win 32.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nublense1.41
Union La Calera1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nublense Nublense
WWDLW
31 GF / 26 GA
Union La Calera Union La Calera
WLDWL
33 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
11
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
15
3.88
Shots on Goal
3.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nublense Nublense 23 matches
Union La Calera Union La Calera 24 matches
Nublense Statistic Union La Calera
10 Wins 8
9 Draws 6
4 Losses 10
31 Goals For 33
26 Goals Against 36
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
11 BTTS Yes 11
14 Over 1.5 18
8 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 9
10 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 7
3.88 Shots On Goal 3.44
12.24 Total Shots 10.28
4.29 Corners 5.5
44.9% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Nublense's more proactive style and Union La Calera's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nublense arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 25 points compared to Union La Calera in 16 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nublense expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Union La Calera in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Union La Calera having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Union La Calera. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nublense Analysis

So far, Nublense have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 25 points from 16 matches. The record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 20:19 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ignacio Jeraldino (2 goals), Lucas Molina (2 goals), Matías Plaza (1 goals), with creative support from Matías Plaza (3 assists), Gabriel Graciani (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Union La Calera Analysis

Union La Calera sit 16 with 13 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats with a 15:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Kevin Méndez (3 goals), Sebastián Sáez (3 goals), Francisco Jose Pozzo (2 goals), with creative support from Kevin Méndez (3 assists), Christopher Díaz (2 assists), Nicolás Avellaneda (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nublense won 2 times, Union La Calera won 6 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:18 from Nublense's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.2%)
Predicted formations: Nublense 4-4-2 / Union La Calera 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Nublense wins 2, draws 7, Union La Calera wins 6

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 17 3 4 50:27 23 54
L D D W W
2 23 13 3 7 50:33 17 42
W W W W L
3 23 12 6 5 35:19 16 42
W W L L W
4 24 11 6 7 40:27 13 39
W W L W W
5 24 11 4 9 38:35 3 37
D L W L W
6 24 10 4 10 45:37 8 34
D L W W L
7 23 9 5 9 36:33 3 32
W L L L W
8 24 9 5 10 26:27 -1 32
D D L W D
9 23 8 8 7 28:31 -3 32
L L L L W
10 23 9 4 10 33:39 -6 31
W W W D L
11 24 7 9 8 36:41 -5 30
L L W W D
12 23 7 7 9 26:31 -5 28
W W L D D
13 24 8 3 13 28:38 -10 27
L L W L L
14 24 7 4 13 35:45 -10 25
D W L W D
15 24 6 5 13 18:40 -22 23
D L L L W
16 24 4 6 14 20:41 -21 18
D W L L D