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BRAZIL › SERIE B
09.08.2026 19:00
Estádio dos Aflitos
Referee: Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes, Brazil
Nautico Recife
Match Timeline
Atletico Goianiense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
Kauan Maranhao · Assist: Igor Fernandes
Nautico Recife
🟨
18'
Arnaldo
Nautico Recife
🟨
22'
Adriano Martins
Atletico Goianiense
🔄
46'
Leandro Vilela ↔ Bruno Jose
Atletico Goianiense
🔄
46'
Leo Tocantins ↔ Cristiano
Atletico Goianiense
🔄
46'
Matheusinho ↔ Henrique Freitas
Atletico Goianiense
🟨
52'
Muriel
Nautico Recife
VAR
52'
Muriel
Nautico Recife
⚽
56'
Geovany Soares · Assist: Henrique Freitas
Atletico Goianiense
🔄
64'
Igor Fernandes ↔ Ryan Carlos
Nautico Recife
🔄
64'
Samuel Felix ↔ P. Nunez
Nautico Recife
🔄
64'
Auremir ↔ Gustavo Henrique
Nautico Recife
🔄
71'
Arnaldo ↔ Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
🔄
73'
Geovany Soares ↔ Gustavo Maia
Atletico Goianiense
🔄
80'
Gustavo Coutinho ↔ Joao Pedro
Atletico Goianiense
🟨
82'
Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
🟨
83'
Cristiano
Atletico Goianiense
🟨
86'
Benjamín Borasi
Nautico Recife
🔄
87'
B. Borasi ↔ Juan Rikelme
Nautico Recife

Nautico Recife vs Atletico Goianiense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.6%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.6%
- ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nautico Recife Win 34%
Draw 16.4%
Atletico Goianiense Win 49.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nautico Recife1.12
Atletico Goianiense1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WWDLW
24 GF / 24 GA
Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense
WLDWL
23 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1
7
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
8
4.3
Shots on Goal
4.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 20 matches
Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 20 matches
Nautico Recife Statistic Atletico Goianiense
7 Wins 8
4 Draws 7
9 Losses 5
24 Goals For 23
24 Goals Against 20
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1
7 BTTS Yes 11
11 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 5
4.3 Shots On Goal 4.45
15.8 Total Shots 13.55
5.85 Corners 5.5
59.2% Ball Possession 47.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Atletico Goianiense's more proactive style and Nautico Recife's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nautico Recife expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Goianiense in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Goianiense having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atletico Goianiense. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Nautico Recife Analysis

From their first 20 matches, Nautico Recife have collected 25 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. The record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 24:24 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vinícius (4 goals), Dodô (2 goals), Victor Andrade (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Goianiense Analysis

From their first 20 matches, Atletico Goianiense have collected 31 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, while the 23:20 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Gustavo Coutinho (7 goals), Leo Jacó (3 goals), Guilherme Marques (2 goals), with creative support from Guilherme Marques (3 assists), Geovany Soares (3 assists), Marrony (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Nautico Recife won 4 times, Atletico Goianiense won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:13 from Nautico Recife's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.7%)
Predicted formations: Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Goianiense 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Nautico Recife wins 4, draws 2, Atletico Goianiense wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 33 14 11 8 41:31 10 53
D L W W L
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 33 13 12 8 45:35 10 51
D W W L W
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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