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PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
20.04.2026 19:15
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Referee: M. Torres
Moreirense
Match Timeline
Estoril
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
Alanzinho · Assist: A. Assis
Moreirense
🔄
46'
Peixinho ↔ J. Carvalho
Estoril
🔄
53'
Jandro ↔ R. Guitane
Estoril
🔄
53'
Pizzi ↔ J. Holsgrove
Estoril
🔄
63'
Kiko Bondoso ↔ C. Teguia
Moreirense
🔄
63'
A. Assis ↔ Yan Maranhao
Moreirense
🟨
72'
Ferro
Estoril
🔄
73'
Xeka ↔ A. Marques
Estoril
🔄
79'
Landerson ↔ L. Santos
Moreirense
🔄
79'
P. Carvalho ↔ G. Costa
Estoril
🟨
90+3'
Antef Tsoungui
Estoril
🔄
90'
Alanzinho ↔ J. Gower
Moreirense

Moreirense vs Estoril Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 82.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
82.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.8%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Moreirense Win 2.1%
Draw 15.6%
Estoril Win 82.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Moreirense1.35
Estoril1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Moreirense Moreirense
WWDLW
32 GF / 41 GA
Estoril Estoril
WLDWL
51 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.72
14
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
20
3.14
Shots on Goal
4.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Moreirense Moreirense 29 matches
Estoril Estoril 29 matches
Moreirense Statistic Estoril
10 Wins 10
6 Draws 7
13 Losses 12
32 Goals For 51
41 Goals Against 50
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.72
14 BTTS Yes 17
22 Over 1.5 23
15 Over 2.5 20
5 Over 3.5 17
7 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 8
3.14 Shots On Goal 4.21
8.52 Total Shots 11.93
3.55 Corners 4.45
48.6% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Estoril's more proactive style and Moreirense's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Moreirense expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Estoril in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Estoril having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Estoril. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Moreirense Analysis

With 36 points from 29 games and a place of 9, Moreirense still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 32:41, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Guilherme Schettine (9 goals), Travassos (4 goals), Alanzinho (3 goals), with creative support from Dinis Pinto (6 assists), Alanzinho (5 assists), Travassos (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Estoril Analysis

Estoril sit 7 with 37 points after 29 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 51:50, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Y. Begraoui (19 goals), João Carvalho (6 goals), Alejandro Marqués (4 goals), with creative support from João Carvalho (11 assists), Jordan Holsgrove (7 assists), R. Guitane (5 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Moreirense won 5 times, Estoril won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:21 from Moreirense's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (97.9%)
Predicted formations: Moreirense 4-3-3 / Estoril 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Moreirense wins 5, draws 5, Estoril wins 5

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2