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BRAZIL › SERIE A
23.05.2026 22:00
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Referee: Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil
Mirassol
Match Timeline
Fluminense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Alesson
Mirassol
🟨
33'
Luciano Acosta
Fluminense
🟨
35'
Denilson
Mirassol
⚽
36'
Denilson
Mirassol
🟨
38'
Nonato
Fluminense
VAR
45+4'
Samuel Xavier
Fluminense
🔄
57'
Denilson ↔ Chico
Mirassol
🔄
60'
Nonato ↔ Hércules
Fluminense
🔄
60'
Luciano Acosta ↔ Germán Cano
Fluminense
🔄
68'
Yeferson Soteldo ↔ Riquelme Felipe
Fluminense
🔄
71'
Carlos Eduardo ↔ Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
71'
Alesson ↔ Nathan Fogaça
Mirassol
🔄
76'
John Kennedy ↔ Wesley Natã
Fluminense
🔄
76'
Renê ↔ Guilherme Arana
Fluminense
🔄
88'
Edson Carioca ↔ Lucas Oliveira
Mirassol
🔄
88'
Reinaldo ↔ Victor Luis
Mirassol
🟨
90+7'
Juan Pablo Freytes
Fluminense

Mirassol vs Fluminense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
100%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Mirassol Win 51.9%
Draw 0%
Fluminense Win 48.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mirassol1.24
Fluminense1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mirassol Mirassol
WWDLW
24 GF / 26 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
31 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
11
BTTS Yes
15
10
Over 2.5
12
4.45
Shots on Goal
5.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mirassol Mirassol 20 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 21 matches
Mirassol Statistic Fluminense
7 Wins 10
4 Draws 5
9 Losses 6
24 Goals For 31
26 Goals Against 27
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
11 BTTS Yes 15
14 Over 1.5 18
10 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 3
4.45 Shots On Goal 5.9
13.5 Total Shots 15.48
5.65 Corners 5.1
52.2% Ball Possession 61.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fluminense's more proactive style and Mirassol's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Fluminense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 30 points while Mirassol sit 19 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fluminense. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 13 points from 15 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 17:23 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Igor Formiga (3 goals), Eduardo (2 goals), Nathan Fogaça (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), C. Cuesta (1 assists), Carlos Eduardo (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 30 points after 16 matches. They have recorded 9 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a 27:21 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on John Kennedy (8 goals), Agustín Canobbio (4 goals), Hércules (3 goals), with creative support from L. Acosta (4 assists), J. Savarino (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol won 2 times, Fluminense won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Mirassol's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Mirassol 4-2-3-1 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Mirassol 2, Fluminense 5
H2H summary: Mirassol wins 2, draws 0, Fluminense wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 7 4 57:25 32 61
D W W W W
2 29 17 9 3 48:21 27 60
W D W D D
3 29 14 9 6 48:36 12 51
W W L W D
4 29 14 8 7 45:34 11 50
D W D L D
5 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
6 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
7 29 12 10 7 43:36 7 46
L L W W W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
10 29 10 8 11 37:47 -10 38
L L D L W
11 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 29 9 8 12 42:47 -5 35
L L W D D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
16 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B