BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Referee: S. Sampaio
Mirassol
Match Timeline
Fluminense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Alesson
Mirassol
🟨
33'
Luciano Acosta
Fluminense
🟨
35'
Denilson
Mirassol
36'
Denilson
Mirassol
🟨
38'
Nonato
Fluminense
VAR
45+4'
Samuel Xavier
Fluminense
🔄
57'
Denilson ↔ Chico Kim
Mirassol
🔄
60'
Nonato ↔ Hercules
Fluminense
🔄
60'
L. Acosta ↔ G. Cano
Fluminense
🔄
68'
Y. Soteldo ↔ Riquelme Felipe
Fluminense
🔄
71'
Carlos Eduardo ↔ Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
71'
Alesson ↔ Nathan Fogaca
Mirassol
🔄
76'
John Kennedy ↔ Wesley Nata
Fluminense
🔄
76'
Rene ↔ Guilherme Arana
Fluminense
🔄
88'
Reinaldo ↔ Victor Luis
Mirassol
🔄
88'
Edson Carioca ↔ Lucas Oliveira
Mirassol
🟨
90+7'
Juan Pablo Freytes
Fluminense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
100%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mirassol Win 51.9%
Draw 0%
Fluminense Win 48.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mirassol1.24
Fluminense1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mirassol Mirassol
WWDLW
24 GF / 26 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
31 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
11
BTTS Yes
15
10
Over 2.5
12
4.45
Shots on Goal
5.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mirassol Mirassol 20 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 21 matches
Mirassol Statistic Fluminense
7 Wins 10
4 Draws 5
9 Losses 6
24 Goals For 31
26 Goals Against 27
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
11 BTTS Yes 15
14 Over 1.5 18
10 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 3
4.45 Shots On Goal 5.9
13.5 Total Shots 15.48
5.65 Corners 5.1
52.3% Ball Possession 61.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fluminense's more proactive style and Mirassol's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Fluminense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 30 points while Mirassol sit 19 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fluminense. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 13 points from 15 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 17:23 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Igor Formiga (3 goals), Eduardo (2 goals), Nathan Fogaça (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), C. Cuesta (1 assists), Carlos Eduardo (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 30 points after 16 matches. They have recorded 9 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a 27:21 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on John Kennedy (8 goals), Agustín Canobbio (4 goals), Hércules (3 goals), with creative support from L. Acosta (4 assists), J. Savarino (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol won 2 times, Fluminense won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Mirassol's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Mirassol 4-2-3-1 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Mirassol 2, Fluminense 5
H2H summary: Mirassol wins 2, draws 0, Fluminense wins 1
Stats
Mirassol Mirassol
Fluminense Fluminense
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
3
4 Corner Kicks 5
12 Fouls 14
3 Offsides 0
32% Ball Possession 68%
13 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Goal 1
3 Shots off Goal 6
2 Blocked Shots 3
7 Shots insidebox 4
6 Shots outsidebox 6
1 Goalkeeper Saves 7
267 Total passes 553
208 Passes accurate 500
0.51 expected_goals 0.60
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Mirassol
Formation
Fluminense
Walter
Walter
Daniel Borges
Daniel Borges
Joao Victor
Joao Victor
Willian Machado
Willian Machado
Reinaldo
Reinaldo
Jose Aldo
Jose Aldo
Denilson
Denilson
Carlos Eduardo
Carlos Eduardo
Shaylon
Shaylon
Alesson
Alesson
Edson Carioca
Edson Carioca
Fabio
Fabio
Samuel Xavier
Samuel Xavier
Jemmes
Jemmes
J. Freytes
J. Freytes
Rene
Rene
F. Bernal
F. Bernal
Nonato
Nonato
K. Serna
K. Serna
L. Acosta
L. Acosta
Y. Soteldo
Y. Soteldo
John Kennedy
John Kennedy
Mirassol 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Walter
G
20
Daniel Borges
D
34
Joao Victor
D
3
Willian Machado
D
6
Reinaldo
↓ 88'
D
21
Jose Aldo
M
8
Denilson
⚽ 36' ↓ 57' 🟨 35'
M
96
Carlos Eduardo
↓ 71'
7
Shaylon
M
77
Alesson
↓ 71' 🟨 7'
M
95
Edson Carioca
↓ 88'
F
Substitutes
23
Alex Muralha
G
33
Eduardo
↑ 71'
M
5
Yuri Lara
16
Igor Carius
D
97
Rodrigues
D
17
Everton Galdino
F
27
A. Galeano
F
9
Nathan Fogaca
↑ 71'
F
12
Victor Luis
↑ 88'
D
29
Tiquinho Soares
10
Chico Kim
↑ 57'
M
2
Lucas Oliveira
↑ 88'
D
Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Fabio
G
2
Samuel Xavier
D
3
Jemmes
D
22
J. Freytes
🟨 90+7'
D
6
Rene
↓ 76'
D
5
F. Bernal
M
16
Nonato
↓ 60' 🟨 38'
M
90
K. Serna
M
32
L. Acosta
↓ 60' 🟨 33'
M
7
Y. Soteldo
↓ 68'
M
9
John Kennedy
↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
98
Vitor Eudes
G
10
PH Ganso
M
23
Guga
D
21
Igor Rabello
D
35
Hercules
↑ 60'
M
46
Julio Fidelis
34
Wesley Nata
↑ 76'
94
Otavio
M
14
G. Cano
↑ 60'
F
13
Guilherme Arana
↑ 76'
D
29
J. Millan
D
28
Riquelme Felipe
↑ 68'
F
Last matches: Mirassol
30.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Corinthians
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Bahia
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
01.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Botafogo
2
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vitoria
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Coritiba
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Palmeiras
0
1
L
11.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Santos
2
2
D
11.02.26
Ser
Mirassol
Cruzeiro
2
2
D
Last matches: Fluminense
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
28.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
3
1
W
19.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vitoria
2
2
D
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Santos
3
2
W
16.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Flamengo
1
2
L
07.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Coritiba
1
1
D
02.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Corinthians
3
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
19.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vasco DA Gama
2
3
L
15.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
3
2
W
12.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Remo
2
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
1
2
L
H2H: Mirassol vs Fluminense
23.05.26
H2H
Mirassol
Fluminense
1
0
W
06.11.25
H2H
Fluminense
Mirassol
1
0
L
09.10.25
H2H
Mirassol
Fluminense
2
1
W
Last matches: Mirassol
10.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Corinthians
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Bahia
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Coritiba
0
1
L
11.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Santos
2
2
D
11.02.26
Ser
Mirassol
Cruzeiro
2
2
D
29.01.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
H2H at home: Mirassol
23.05.26
H2H
Mirassol
Fluminense
1
0
W
09.10.25
H2H
Mirassol
Fluminense
2
1
W
Last matches: Fluminense
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Santos
3
2
W
07.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Coritiba
1
1
D
19.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vasco DA Gama
2
3
L
12.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Remo
2
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
1
2
L
05.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Bahia
1
1
D
H2H away: Fluminense
23.05.26
H2H
Mirassol
Fluminense
1
0
L
09.10.25
H2H
Mirassol
Fluminense
2
1
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Mirassol 2 missing
-
Negueba
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Igor Formiga
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
Fluminense 5 missing
-
Matheus Reis
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
J. Savarino
Missing Fixture Rest
OUT
-
Ignacio
Missing Fixture Broken Hand
OUT
-
Alisson
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Martinelli
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT