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BRAZIL › SERIE C
23.05.2026 22:30
Maranhão
Match Timeline
Caxias
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
45+1'
Lucao
Maranhão
🟨
45+3'
Will
Maranhão
🔄
46'
Roberto ↔ Victor Sa
Caxias
🟨
57'
Vitor Gabriel
Caxias
🔄
64'
Jorge Rocha ↔ Pimentinha
Maranhão
🔄
64'
Felipe Cruz ↔ Rafael Teixeira
Maranhão
🔄
64'
Calyson ↔ Breno Santos
Caxias
🔄
64'
Matheus Nunes ↔ Jhonatan Ribeiro
Caxias
🔄
64'
Ravanelli ↔ Joao Lucas
Caxias
🟨
70'
Maranhão
Maranhão
🟨
76'
Jhonatan Ribeiro
Caxias
🔄
83'
Vitor Gabriel ↔ Mancha
Caxias
🔄
84'
Will ↔ Felipe Sales
Maranhão
🟨
90+2'
Andre Radija
Maranhão
🟨
90+6'
Rosivan
Maranhão
🟥
90+6'
Rosivan
Maranhão
🔄
90+6'
Luis Gustavo ↔ Rodrigo
Maranhão

Maranhão vs Caxias Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
26%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Maranhão Win 76.4%
Draw 0%
Caxias Win 23.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Maranhão1.06
Caxias1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Maranhão Maranhão
WWDLW
9 GF / 11 GA
Caxias Caxias
WLDWL
7 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
5
BTTS Yes
3
5
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Maranhão Maranhão 7 matches
Caxias Caxias 7 matches
Maranhão Statistic Caxias
3 Wins 3
1 Draws 2
3 Losses 2
9 Goals For 7
11 Goals Against 5
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
5 BTTS Yes 3
7 Over 1.5 4
5 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 0
0 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Caxias's more proactive style and Maranhão's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Caxias. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Caxias having the stronger overall control.

Maranhão Analysis

Maranhão sit 12 with 10 points after 7 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 9:11 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vagalume (3 goals), Felipe Cruz (2 goals), Vander (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Caxias Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Caxias have collected 11 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 7:5 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Salatiel (3 goals), Calyson (2 goals), Joao Lucas (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Maranhão won 0 times, Caxias won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:0 from Maranhão's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Maranhão wins 0, draws 1, Caxias wins 0

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
W D D L L
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D D D L D
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W L D W W
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W D D W L
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L D D L W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L D W D D
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
D W L D L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
L D D W W
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation