BRAZIL SERIE C
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 62.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
62.9%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Maranhão Win 43.9%
Draw 19%
AO Itabaiana Win 37.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Maranhão0.99
AO Itabaiana0.81
Recent Form (Last 5)
Maranhão Maranhão
WWDLW
14 GF / 15 GA
AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana
WLDWL
13 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
0.76
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
7
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Maranhão Maranhão 17 matches
AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana 17 matches
Maranhão Statistic AO Itabaiana
6 Wins 4
6 Draws 5
5 Losses 8
14 Goals For 13
15 Goals Against 21
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 0.76
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
7 BTTS Yes 6
9 Over 1.5 9
7 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors AO Itabaiana. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward AO Itabaiana having the stronger overall control.

Maranhão Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Maranhão have collected 24 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, while the 14:15 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

AO Itabaiana Analysis

AO Itabaiana sit 17 with 17 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 13:20 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Maranhão won 1 times, AO Itabaiana won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:3 from Maranhão's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 7 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81%)
H2H summary: Maranhão wins 1, draws 0, AO Itabaiana wins 0
Last matches: Maranhão
15.08.26
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
1
0
W
09.08.26
Ser
Maranhão
Brusque
2
1
W
25.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Ferroviária
0
0
D
12.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Ypiranga-RS
2
1
W
04.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Inter De Limeira
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Ituano
0
0
D
21.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Paysandu
0
1
L
15.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Maringá
0
0
D
31.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Anápolis
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Caxias
0
0
D
18.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Confiança
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Botafogo PB
3
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Floresta
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Volta Redonda
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Amazonas
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Barra
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Guarani Campinas
1
1
D
20.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
0
D
14.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
06.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
ASA
3
0
W
Last matches: AO Itabaiana
16.08.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Barra
0
1
L
09.08.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Caxias
0
2
L
25.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Confiança
1
1
D
13.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Brusque
1
0
W
07.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Amazonas
2
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ferroviária
1
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Anápolis
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Inter De Limeira
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Figueirense
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Floresta
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Maringá
2
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Paysandu
1
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Guarani Campinas
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ypiranga-RS
1
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
H2H: Maranhão vs AO Itabaiana
21.03.24
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Maranhão
3
4
W
Last matches: Maranhão
09.08.26
Ser
Maranhão
Brusque
2
1
W
12.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Ypiranga-RS
2
1
W
04.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Inter De Limeira
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Paysandu
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Caxias
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Botafogo PB
3
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Volta Redonda
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Guarani Campinas
1
1
D
14.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
30.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
ASA
1
0
W
16.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Central SC
2
1
W
02.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Tuna Luso
4
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Maranhão
Maracanã
3
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
Maranhão
Sampaio Correa
2
0
W
08.06.25
Ser
Maranhão
Iguatu
1
1
D
24.05.25
Ser
Maranhão
Parnahyba
1
1
D
10.05.25
Ser
Maranhão
Tocantinópolis
2
3
L
03.05.25
Ser
Maranhão
Imperatriz
3
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Maranhão
Altos
1
1
D
Last matches: AO Itabaiana
16.08.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Barra
0
1
L
25.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Confiança
1
1
D
07.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Amazonas
2
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Anápolis
0
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Inter De Limeira
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Figueirense
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Maringá
2
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Guarani Campinas
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Santa Cruz
0
1
L

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 9 3 5 25:19 6 30
W L W L W
2 17 8 4 5 22:20 2 28
L W L W W
3 17 8 3 6 23:18 5 27
D D W W W
4 17 7 6 4 31:19 12 27
D L W L D
5 17 7 6 4 21:14 7 27
W D D W L
6 17 8 2 7 25:26 -1 26
L W L W L
7 17 7 4 6 17:14 3 25
L D L W W
8 17 7 4 6 24:22 2 25
D W W L W
9 17 7 3 7 18:20 -2 24
D W W L L
10 17 6 6 5 17:14 3 24
L W L D W
11 17 6 6 5 29:29 0 24
D L D W W
12 17 6 6 5 18:19 -1 24
W L D D D
13 17 6 6 5 14:15 -1 24
W W D W L
14 17 6 6 5 17:21 -4 24
W D W D L
15 17 6 4 7 18:18 0 22
L W L L L
16 17 6 3 8 12:21 -9 21
W L L D L
17 17 4 6 7 18:19 -1 18
W L L L W
18 17 4 5 8 13:21 -8 17
L L D W W
19 17 4 3 10 15:21 -6 15
L W W L L
20 17 3 4 10 11:18 -7 13
D L D L L
Play-offs
Relegation