BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Manauara
Match Timeline
Independência
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
69'
Joao Guilherme
Manauara
87'
I. Alves de Macedo
Independência

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.7%
Odds 1.14
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.47
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.7%
1.14
BTTS Yes
54.1%
2.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.47
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.19
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.57
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Manauara Win 64.7%
Draw 8.7%
Independência Win 26.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Manauara1.25
Independência1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Manauara Manauara
WWDLW
15 GF / 5 GA
Independência Independência
WLDWL
17 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.55
0.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
4
BTTS Yes
6
2
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Manauara Manauara 11 matches
Independência Independência 11 matches
Manauara Statistic Independência
7 Wins 4
4 Draws 3
0 Losses 4
15 Goals For 17
5 Goals Against 12
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
0.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
4 BTTS Yes 6
6 Over 1.5 9
2 Over 2.5 6
1 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Independência. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Manauara arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 22 points compared to Independência in 4 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Independência having the stronger overall control.

Manauara Analysis

Manauara enter this tie with a season profile built on 22 points from 10 matches, placing them 1 in their league. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 0 defeats with goals at 13:5 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Independência Analysis

Independência enter this tie with a season profile built on 15 points from 10 matches, placing them 4 in their league. The return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 17:10 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Pitel (6 goals), Caique Gomes (4 goals), Biel (3 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Manauara won 1 times, Independência won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:3 from Manauara's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.3%)
H2H summary: Manauara wins 1, draws 1, Independência wins 1
Last matches: Manauara
21.06.26
Ser
Manauara
Independência
2
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Manauara
Sao Raimundo
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Manauara
Monte Roraima
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Manauara
Manaus FC
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Manauara
Nacional AM
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Manauara
GAS
0
0
D
04.05.26
Ser
Manauara
GAS
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Manauara
Nacional AM
4
2
W
19.04.26
Ser
Manauara
Manaus FC
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Manauara
Monte Roraima
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Manauara
Sao Raimundo
0
0
D
23.08.25
Ser
Manauara
ASA
0
0
D
16.08.25
Ser
Manauara
ASA
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Manauara
Sampaio Correa
1
0
W
04.08.25
Ser
Manauara
Sampaio Correa
1
1
D
27.07.25
Ser
Manauara
Independência
1
2
L
19.07.25
Ser
Manauara
GAS
3
0
W
13.07.25
Ser
Manauara
Tuna Luso
1
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Manauara
Águia de Marabá
1
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
Manauara
Manaus FC
2
2
D
Last matches: Independência
21.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
2
2
D
31.05.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
3
L
03.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
5
L
27.07.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
1
4
L
12.07.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
0
1
L
05.07.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
2
1
W
29.06.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
2
D
15.06.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
3
L
07.06.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
1
0
W
H2H: Manauara vs Independência
21.06.26
H2H
Independência
Manauara
0
2
W
27.07.25
H2H
Independência
Manauara
2
1
L
19.04.25
H2H
Manauara
Independência
1
1
D
Last matches: Manauara
14.06.26
Ser
Manauara
Sao Raimundo
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Manauara
Manaus FC
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Manauara
GAS
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Manauara
Nacional AM
4
2
W
11.04.26
Ser
Manauara
Monte Roraima
2
0
W
16.08.25
Ser
Manauara
ASA
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Manauara
Sampaio Correa
1
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Manauara
GAS
3
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
Manauara
Manaus FC
2
2
D
07.06.25
Ser
Manauara
Trem
2
0
W
24.05.25
Ser
Manauara
Humaitá
5
0
W
11.05.25
Ser
Manauara
Águia de Marabá
0
0
D
03.05.25
Ser
Manauara
Tuna Luso
3
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Manauara
Independência
1
1
D
H2H at home: Manauara
19.04.25
H2H
Manauara
Independência
1
1
D
Last matches: Independência
31.05.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
4
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
1
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
3
L
19.07.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
1
4
L
05.07.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
2
1
W
15.06.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
3
L
31.05.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
0
1
L
21.05.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
1
W
04.05.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
1
W
19.04.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
1
1
D
H2H away: Independência
19.04.25
H2H
Manauara
Independência
1
1
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 13.92
Draw 6.34
Home 1.14
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.25 1.34
Over 2.5 1.47
Over 2.75 1.59
Over 3.0 1.78
Over 3.25 2.00
Over 3.5 2.21
Over 3.75 2.55
Under 2.25 2.95
Under 2.5 2.45
Under 2.75 2.23
Under 3.0 1.98
Under 3.25 1.73
Under 3.5 1.58
Under 3.75 1.44
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 13.00
Draw 6.00
Home 1.17
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 12.00
Draw 2.75
Home 1.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 11.00
Draw 3.40
Home 1.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.53
Over 3.5 2.25
Over 4.5 4.00
Over 5.5 7.00
Over 6.5 10.00
Over 7.5 15.00
Over 8.5 21.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 1.5 4.50
Under 2.5 2.38
Under 3.5 1.57
Under 4.5 1.22
Under 5.5 1.08
Under 6.5 1.03
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 18.50
Draw 6.40
Home 1.11
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 13.30
Draw 2.59
Home 1.54
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 13.20
Draw 3.68
Home 1.31
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.5 1.13
Over 2.0 1.19
Over 2.25 1.33
Over 2.5 1.48
Over 2.75 1.62
Over 3.0 1.75
Over 3.25 2.00
Over 3.5 2.21
Over 3.75 2.49
Over 4.0 3.04
Over 4.25 3.28
Over 4.5 3.58
Over 5.0 5.80
Over 5.5 7.00
Over 6.5 10.00
Over 7.5 15.00
Over 8.5 21.00
Under 0.5 12.80
Under 1.0 9.50
Under 1.5 5.10
Under 2.0 3.80
Under 2.25 2.81
Under 2.5 2.33
Under 2.75 2.14
Under 3.0 1.88
Under 3.25 1.71
Under 3.5 1.58
Under 3.75 1.42
Under 4.0 1.29
Under 4.25 1.25
Under 4.5 1.21
Under 5.0 1.07
Under 5.5 1.08
Under 6.5 1.03
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 14.00
Draw 7.00
Home 1.11
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 10.50
Draw 3.00
Home 1.48
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 10.00
Draw 3.55
Home 1.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.49
Over 3.5 2.30
Over 4.5 4.00
Under 1.5 4.80
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 3.5 1.50
Under 4.5 1.17

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)