Leeds vs Burnley Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
56.8%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
40.9%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.2%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
90.2%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
- |
Leeds
Burnley
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Leeds
39 matches
Burnley
36 matches
| Leeds | Statistic | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wins | 5 |
| 15 | Draws | 8 |
| 13 | Losses | 23 |
| 53 | Goals For | 40 |
| 56 | Goals Against | 71 |
| 1.36 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.11 |
| 1.44 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.97 |
| 23 | BTTS Yes | 21 |
| 29 | Over 1.5 | 31 |
| 22 | Over 2.5 | 19 |
| 15 | Over 3.5 | 14 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 4 |
| 12 | Failed To Score | 13 |
| 4.26 | Shots On Goal | 3.11 |
| 13.23 | Total Shots | 9.67 |
| 4.67 | Corners | 3.86 |
| 46.3% | Ball Possession | 42.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Burnley seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Burnley arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leeds expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Burnley in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Burnley having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Burnley. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Leeds arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 15 with 40 points compared to Burnley in 19 on 20, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.
Leeds sit 15 with 40 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 9 wins, 13 draws, and 12 defeats with a 44:51 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on D. Calvert-Lewin (11 goals), Noah Okafor (7 goals), L. Nmecha (6 goals), with creative support from Brenden Aaronson (5 assists), Anton Stach (3 assists), Ilia Gruev (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with I. Gruev unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
With 20 points from 34 games and a place of 19, Burnley still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 8 draws, and 22 defeats, and the 34:68 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Z. Flemming (9 goals), J. Anthony (7 goals), J. Cullen (3 goals), with creative support from Quilindschy Hartman (5 assists), Hannibal Mejbri (3 assists), M. Edwards (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without Z. Amdouni, J. Cullen, H. Mejbri, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Leeds won 5 times, Burnley won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:17 from Leeds's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 44 | 85 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 42 | 78 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 19 | 71 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 7 | 65 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 5 | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 10 | 60 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 4 | 57 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | -6 | 54 |
W
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 8 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 6 | 53 |
L
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 3 | 53 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 6 | 52 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | -4 | 52 |
W
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | -2 | 49 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | -3 | 49 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 14 |
Leeds
Home
|
38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | -7 | 47 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
| 15 | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | -10 | 45 |
L
D
L
D
L
|
|
| 16 | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | -3 | 44 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | -9 | 41 |
W
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | -19 | 39 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 19 |
Burnley
Away
|
38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | -37 | 22 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
| 20 | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | -41 | 20 |
D
D
L
D
L
|