URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Parque Artigas
Referee: A. M. Matonte Cabrera
Juventud
Match Timeline
Progreso
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
A. Cruz
Juventud
33'
G. Pereiro
Juventud
🔄
46'
F. Garcia ↔ G. Trasante
Progreso
🔄
46'
I. Lemmo ↔ J. Dos Santos
Progreso
🔄
46'
M. Copelotti ↔ D. Sanchez
Progreso
🔄
52'
A. Cruz ↔ R. Sanchez
Juventud
🔄
61'
G. Pereiro ↔ G. Gomez
Juventud
🟨
62'
Jonathan Dos Santos
Progreso
🔄
62'
F. Perez ↔ F. Barrandeguy
Juventud
🔄
62'
F. Mimbacas ↔ M. Perez
Juventud
🟨
63'
David Morosini
Juventud
🟨
72'
Nahuel López
Progreso
🔄
75'
N. Lopez ↔ A. Codagnone
Progreso
🔄
79'
R. Peralta ↔ B. Larregui
Juventud
🟨
84'
Diego Sánchez Richieri
Progreso
🔄
86'
M. Martin ↔ A. Cougo
Progreso
🟨
88'
Rodrigo Chagas
Juventud
🟨
90+1'
Adrián Colombino
Progreso

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Juventud Win 68.5%
Draw 0%
Progreso Win 31.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Juventud1.33
Progreso1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Juventud Juventud
WWDLW
25 GF / 30 GA
Progreso Progreso
WLDWL
12 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
0.8
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
14
BTTS Yes
6
12
Over 2.5
6
4.33
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Juventud Juventud 21 matches
Progreso Progreso 15 matches
Juventud Statistic Progreso
6 Wins 2
5 Draws 4
10 Losses 9
25 Goals For 12
30 Goals Against 23
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
14 BTTS Yes 6
14 Over 1.5 9
12 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 1
6 Failed To Score 8
4.33 Shots On Goal 0
13.5 Total Shots 0
4.33 Corners 0
51% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Progreso. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Progreso arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Juventud expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Progreso in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Progreso having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Juventud Analysis

With 15 points from 15 games and a place of 14, Juventud still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats with a 17:22 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Mimbacas (7 goals), Ramiro Peralta (3 goals), Alejo Cruz (2 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Progreso Analysis

With 10 points from 15 games and a place of 15, Progreso still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats with a 12:23 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Copelotti (2 goals), N. Lopez (2 goals), D. Sanchez (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Juventud won 5 times, Progreso won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:16 from Juventud's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Juventud 4-3-3 / Progreso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Juventud wins 5, draws 4, Progreso wins 6

Lineups

Juventud
Formation
Progreso
S. Sosa
S. Sosa
D. Morosini
D. Morosini
F. Risso
F. Risso
E. Mas
E. Mas
R. Chagas
R. Chagas
F. Perez
F. Perez
E. Cecchini
E. Cecchini
R. Peralta
R. Peralta
G. Pereiro
G. Pereiro
F. Mimbacas
F. Mimbacas
A. Cruz
A. Cruz
A. Mehring
A. Mehring
M. Martin
M. Martin
F. Garcia
F. Garcia
H. Carroso
H. Carroso
G. Silva
G. Silva
A. Colombino
A. Colombino
N. Fernandez
N. Fernandez
I. Lemmo
I. Lemmo
A. Pinheiro
A. Pinheiro
N. Lopez
N. Lopez
M. Copelotti
M. Copelotti
Juventud 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
S. Sosa
G
5
D. Morosini
🟨 63'
D
28
F. Risso
D
23
E. Mas
D
22
R. Chagas
🟨 88'
M
21
F. Perez
↓ 62'
M
19
E. Cecchini
M
37
R. Peralta
↓ 79'
M
26
G. Pereiro
⚽ 33' ↓ 61'
F
80
F. Mimbacas
↓ 62'
F
15
A. Cruz
⚽ 16' ↓ 52'
M
Substitutes
12
N. Rossi
G
4
M. Caceres
D
24
F. Barrandeguy
↑ 62'
D
18
M. Rodriguez
D
30
G. Gomez
↑ 61'
M
8
M. Izaguirre
M
20
R. Sanchez
↑ 52'
F
27
J. Boselli
M
10
B. Larregui
↑ 79'
F
9
M. Perez
↑ 62'
F
Progreso 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
A. Mehring
G
15
M. Martin
↓ 86'
D
3
F. Garcia
↓ 46'
D
13
H. Carroso
D
27
G. Silva
D
8
A. Colombino
🟨 90+1'
M
29
N. Fernandez
M
10
I. Lemmo
↓ 46'
M
5
A. Pinheiro
M
11
N. Lopez
↓ 75' 🟨 72'
M
23
M. Copelotti
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
33
A. Requena
G
16
G. Trasante
↑ 46'
D
6
F. Andueza
D
14
F. Kidd
D
40
A. Cougo
↑ 86'
D
18
G. Silva
M
24
S. Viera
M
25
J. Dos Santos
↑ 46' 🟨 62'
F
30
A. Codagnone
↑ 75'
M
93
D. Sanchez
↑ 46' 🟨 84'
F
Last matches: Juventud
05.07.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
1
D
06.06.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
1
2
L
31.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
2
5
L
10.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
20.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Penarol
2
2
D
12.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Progreso
1
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
30.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Boston River
1
2
L
25.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Cerro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Albion FC
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Danubio
1
4
L
13.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
3
1
W
06.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
02.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
26.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Juventud
Central Espanol
0
1
L
19.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
0
0
D
Last matches: Progreso
07.06.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
3
L
09.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
1
1
D
01.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
0
5
L
H2H: Juventud vs Progreso
16.05.26
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
2
0
W
12.04.26
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
0
W
19.01.26
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
0
1
L
09.11.25
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
1
D
29.06.25
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
2
0
W
18.05.25
H2H
Progreso
Juventud
1
2
W
18.11.23
H2H
Progreso
Juventud
2
1
L
07.07.23
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
1
D
29.04.23
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
5
L
06.08.22
H2H
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
W
16.05.22
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
0
0
D
16.04.22
H2H
Progreso
Juventud
2
1
L
18.09.19
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
2
L
31.08.19
H2H
Progreso
Juventud
0
0
D
24.02.19
H2H
Progreso
Juventud
1
0
L
Last matches: Juventud
31.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
2
5
L
02.05.26
Pri
Juventud
Wanderers
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Juventud
Progreso
1
0
W
30.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Boston River
1
2
L
22.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Albion FC
0
1
L
08.03.26
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
3
1
W
06.03.26
CON
Juventud
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
22.02.26
Pri
Juventud
Central Espanol
0
1
L
19.02.26
CON
Juventud
Club Guarani
0
0
D
08.02.26
Pri
Juventud
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
06.02.26
CON
Juventud
Universidad Catolica
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Juventud
Progreso
1
1
D
25.10.25
Pri
Juventud
Plaza Colonia
0
2
L
12.10.25
Pri
Juventud
CA River Plate
1
2
L
28.09.25
Pri
Juventud
Club Nacional
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pri
Juventud
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
31.08.25
Pri
Juventud
Cerro
1
0
W
16.08.25
Pri
Juventud
Miramar
2
1
W
02.08.25
Pri
Juventud
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
H2H at home: Juventud
16.05.26
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
2
0
W
12.04.26
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
0
W
19.01.26
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
0
1
L
09.11.25
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
1
D
29.06.25
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
2
0
W
07.07.23
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
1
D
29.04.23
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
5
L
16.05.22
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
0
0
D
18.09.19
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
2
L
Last matches: Progreso
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
1
1
D
26.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
1
3
L
10.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
29.09.25
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pri
Progreso
CA River Plate
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
1
2
L
16.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
1
3
L
01.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
1
2
L
H2H away: Progreso
16.05.26
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
2
0
L
12.04.26
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
0
L
19.01.26
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
0
1
W
09.11.25
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
1
D
29.06.25
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
2
0
L
07.07.23
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
1
D
29.04.23
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
5
W
16.05.22
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
0
0
D
18.09.19
H2H
Juventud
Progreso
1
2
W