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GERMANY › 2. BUNDESLIGA
09.05.2026 11:00
Holstein-Stadion
Referee: M. Petersen
Holstein Kiel
Match Timeline
1. FC Magdeburg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
5'
K. Davidsen ↔ S. Schwab
Holstein Kiel
⚽
40'
J. Hugonet · Assist: D. Stalmach
1. FC Magdeburg
⚽
45'
D. Stalmach · Assist: A. Nollenberger
1. FC Magdeburg
⚽
56'
B. Atik
1. FC Magdeburg
🔄
60'
J. Therkelsen ↔ A. Bernhardsson
Holstein Kiel
🔄
60'
U. Tohumcu ↔ I. Ugoh
Holstein Kiel
🔄
62'
D. Stalmach ↔ C. Krempicki
1. FC Magdeburg
🔄
65'
H. Bockhorn ↔ P. Hercher
1. FC Magdeburg
🟨
67'
David Zec
Holstein Kiel
🔄
71'
J. Meffert ↔ N. Niehoff
Holstein Kiel
🔄
71'
I. Nekic ↔ F. Roslyng
Holstein Kiel
🟨
81'
Adrián Kaprálik
Holstein Kiel
🟨
81'
Falko Michel
1. FC Magdeburg
🔄
83'
M. Zukowski ↔ A. Holmstrom
1. FC Magdeburg
🔄
83'
A. Nollenberger ↔ N. Pesch
1. FC Magdeburg
🟨
90'
Alexander Ahl Holmstrom
1. FC Magdeburg
⚽
90'
A. Kapralik · Assist: A. Bernhardsson
Holstein Kiel

Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 59.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
59.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
60.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Holstein Kiel Win 70.8%
Draw 5.6%
1. FC Magdeburg Win 23.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Holstein Kiel1.49
1. FC Magdeburg1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel
WWDLW
42 GF / 43 GA
1. FC Magdeburg 1. FC Magdeburg
WLDWL
49 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.53
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
19
BTTS Yes
15
16
Over 2.5
17
3.63
Shots on Goal
5.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 32 matches
1. FC Magdeburg 1. FC Magdeburg 32 matches
Holstein Kiel Statistic 1. FC Magdeburg
11 Wins 11
8 Draws 3
13 Losses 18
42 Goals For 49
43 Goals Against 56
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
19 BTTS Yes 15
26 Over 1.5 25
16 Over 2.5 17
7 Over 3.5 11
9 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 11
3.63 Shots On Goal 5.28
12 Total Shots 15.5
4.91 Corners 5.25
51.3% Ball Possession 54.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward 1. FC Magdeburg. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Holstein Kiel come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Holstein Kiel expected to line up in 4-5-1 and 1. FC Magdeburg in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward 1. FC Magdeburg having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Holstein Kiel Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Holstein Kiel have collected 41 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 11 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 42:43 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by P. Harres (9 goals), David Zec (6 goals), J. Therkelsen (4 goals), with creative support from Alexander Bernhardsson (8 assists), P. Harres (3 assists), A. Kapralik (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

1. FC Magdeburg Analysis

With 36 points from 32 games and a place of 14, 1. FC Magdeburg still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 49:56, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Mateusz Żukowski (17 goals), Barış Atik (5 goals), R. Ghrieb (4 goals), with creative support from Barış Atik (11 assists), Mateusz Żukowski (3 assists), L. Ulrich (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Holstein Kiel won 3 times, 1. FC Magdeburg won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:22 from Holstein Kiel's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.15 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Holstein Kiel 4-5-1 / 1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3
H2H summary: Holstein Kiel wins 3, draws 6, 1. FC Magdeburg wins 4

Standings

2. Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 21 7 6 50:31 19 70
W L W W W
2 34 18 8 8 64:39 25 62
W L W D W
3 34 18 8 8 59:45 14 62
W D L L D
4 34 16 12 6 60:44 16 60
D D D W D
5 34 13 13 8 57:45 12 52
L D L D L
6 34 16 4 14 52:47 5 52
W W L L L
7 34 14 9 11 47:44 3 51
L W L L D
8 34 12 10 12 47:45 2 46
D W D W D
9 34 11 11 12 49:47 2 44
W D D W L
10 34 12 8 14 53:64 -11 44
L D W L L
11 34 11 8 15 54:53 1 41
W L W L W
12 34 11 8 15 44:48 -4 41
L L W W W
13 34 10 9 15 53:51 2 39
W L D W D
14 34 12 3 19 52:58 -6 39
L W W L W
15 34 10 7 17 36:54 -18 37
L W L W D
16 34 10 7 17 49:68 -19 37
W L D L W
17 34 11 4 19 33:53 -20 37
L W L W L
18 34 6 12 16 38:61 -23 30
L D D L L
Promotion - Bundesliga
Promotion - Bundesliga (Promotion)
2. Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 3. Liga