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SPAIN › LA LIGA
09.05.2026 12:00
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Referee: M. Busquets
Elche
Match Timeline
Alaves
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Pablo Ibáñez
Alaves
🟨
29'
Antonio Blanco
Alaves
🟨
33'
Jonny Otto
Alaves
🔄
46'
P. Ibanez ↔ D. Suarez
Alaves
🟨
50'
Aleix Febas
Elche
⚽
51'
T. Martinez
Alaves
🔄
67'
Tete Morente ↔ Josan
Elche
🔄
67'
A. Febas ↔ G. Diangana
Elche
🔄
67'
T. Martinez ↔ Yusi
Alaves
🟨
69'
Ibrahim Diabaté
Alaves
⚽
72'
A. Rodriguez · Assist: Josan
Elche
🟨
78'
Antonio Sivera
Alaves
🔄
82'
I. Diabate ↔ C. Protesoni
Alaves
🔄
82'
J. Guridi ↔ A. Guevara
Alaves
🔄
85'
M. Aguado ↔ J. Donald
Elche
🔄
85'
V. Chust ↔ Buba Sangare
Elche
🟨
88'
Grady Diangana
Elche
🟨
88'
Abderrahman Rebbach
Alaves
🔄
89'
G. Valera ↔ H. Fort
Elche
🟨
90+5'
John Donald
Elche
🔄
90'
A. Rebbach ↔ A. Manas
Alaves

Elche vs Alaves Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Elche Win 73.6%
Draw 0%
Alaves Win 26.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Elche1.41
Alaves1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Elche Elche
WWDLW
53 GF / 56 GA
Alaves Alaves
WLDWL
55 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
26
BTTS Yes
23
24
Over 2.5
21
3.76
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Elche Elche 38 matches
Alaves Alaves 39 matches
Elche Statistic Alaves
12 Wins 13
11 Draws 9
15 Losses 17
53 Goals For 55
56 Goals Against 56
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
26 BTTS Yes 23
30 Over 1.5 29
24 Over 2.5 21
16 Over 3.5 11
9 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 10
3.76 Shots On Goal 4
10.59 Total Shots 11.69
3.76 Corners 4.92
56.2% Ball Possession 48.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Alaves. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Elche expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Alaves in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alaves having the stronger overall control.

Elche Analysis

Elche approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 38 points from 34 matches. Their record of 9 wins, 11 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 45:53, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Andre Silva (10 goals), R. Mir (8 goals), A. Rodriguez (5 goals), with creative support from A. Rodriguez (5 assists), M. Neto (5 assists), G. Valera (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alaves Analysis

Alaves sit 18 with 36 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 9 wins, 9 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 40:53, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Boye (11 goals), T. Martinez (11 goals), C. Vicente (5 goals), with creative support from C. Alena (4 assists), T. Martinez (3 assists), A. Perez (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Elche won 3 times, Alaves won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:8 from Elche's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Elche 3-4-1-2 / Alaves 5-3-2
Missing players: Elche 3, Alaves 3
H2H summary: Elche wins 3, draws 1, Alaves wins 3

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15
Elche Home
38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2