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BRAZIL › SERIE A
18.04.2026 23:30
Governador Magalhães Pinto
Referee: Raphael Claus, Brazil
Cruzeiro
Match Timeline
Gremio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Lucas Villalba
Cruzeiro
🟨
20'
Fabrício Bruno
Cruzeiro
🟨
44'
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
🔄
46'
Kaio Jorge ↔ Neyser Villarreal
Cruzeiro
⚽
51'
Christian · Assist: Gerson
Cruzeiro
🔄
57'
Juan Nardoni ↔ Miguel Monsalve
Gremio
🟨
61'
Erick Noriega
Gremio
🔄
61'
Gerson ↔ Matheus Henrique
Cruzeiro
⚽
66'
Lucas Romero · Assist: Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
🔄
68'
Matheus Pereira ↔ Bruno Rodrigues
Cruzeiro
🔄
71'
Francis Amuzu ↔ Gabriel Mec
Gremio
🔄
71'
José Enamorado ↔ Tetê
Gremio
🔄
71'
Erick Noriega ↔ Leonel Pérez
Gremio
🔄
75'
Lucas Romero ↔ Lucas Silva
Cruzeiro
🔄
75'
Christian ↔ Wanderson
Cruzeiro
🟨
77'
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
🔄
84'
Carlos Vinícius ↔ Martin Braithwaite
Gremio
🟨
85'
Leonel Pérez
Gremio
🟨
90+1'
Lucas Silva
Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro vs Gremio Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 61.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
61.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.4%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cruzeiro Win 71.8%
Draw 7.5%
Gremio Win 20.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro1.25
Gremio1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WWDLW
16 GF / 23 GA
Gremio Gremio
WLDWL
14 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
8
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
5
4.54
Shots on Goal
4.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 13 matches
Gremio Gremio 11 matches
Cruzeiro Statistic Gremio
3 Wins 3
4 Draws 4
6 Losses 4
16 Goals For 14
23 Goals Against 14
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
8 BTTS Yes 7
11 Over 1.5 9
9 Over 2.5 5
4 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 3
4.54 Shots On Goal 4.18
13.15 Total Shots 12.27
4.85 Corners 4.18
55.6% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cruzeiro expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gremio in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gremio. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Cruzeiro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 10 points from 11 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 14:21, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Christian (4 goals), N. Villarreal (3 goals), Kaio Jorge (2 goals), with creative support from Kaiki (2 assists), Keny Arroyo (2 assists), L. Romero (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Cassio, Marquinhos, L. Sinisterra unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Gremio Analysis

From their first 11 matches, Gremio have collected 13 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 14:14 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Carlos Vinicius (7 goals), Edenilson (2 goals), Camutanga (1 goals), with creative support from Edenilson (2 assists), F. Amuzu (2 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Marlon, M. Villasanti, Joao Pedro, Viery unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 6 times, Gremio won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:19 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.5%)
Predicted formations: Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 / Gremio 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Cruzeiro 3, Gremio 6
H2H summary: Cruzeiro wins 6, draws 4, Gremio wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B