BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Governador Magalhães Pinto
Referee: R. Claus
Cruzeiro
Match Timeline
Gremio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Lucas Villalba
Cruzeiro
🟨
20'
Fabrício Bruno
Cruzeiro
🟨
44'
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
🔄
46'
Kaio Jorge ↔ N. Villarreal
Cruzeiro
51'
Christian · Assist: Gerson
Cruzeiro
🔄
57'
J. Nardoni ↔ M. Monsalve
Gremio
🟨
61'
Erick Noriega
Gremio
🔄
61'
Gerson ↔ Matheus Henrique
Cruzeiro
66'
L. Romero · Assist: Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
🔄
68'
Matheus Pereira ↔ Bruno Rodrigues
Cruzeiro
🔄
71'
J. Enamorado ↔ Tete
Gremio
🔄
71'
E. Noriega ↔ L. Perez
Gremio
🔄
71'
F. Amuzu ↔ Gabriel Mec
Gremio
🔄
75'
Christian ↔ Wanderson
Cruzeiro
🔄
75'
L. Romero ↔ Lucas Silva
Cruzeiro
🟨
77'
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
🔄
84'
Carlos Vinicius ↔ M. Braithwaite
Gremio
🟨
85'
Leonel Pérez
Gremio
🟨
90+1'
Lucas Silva
Cruzeiro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 61.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
61.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Cruzeiro Win 71.8%
Draw 7.5%
Gremio Win 20.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro1.25
Gremio1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WWDLW
16 GF / 23 GA
Gremio Gremio
WLDWL
14 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
8
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
5
4.54
Shots on Goal
4.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 13 matches
Gremio Gremio 11 matches
Cruzeiro Statistic Gremio
3 Wins 3
4 Draws 4
6 Losses 4
16 Goals For 14
23 Goals Against 14
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
8 BTTS Yes 7
11 Over 1.5 9
9 Over 2.5 5
4 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 3
4.54 Shots On Goal 4.18
13.15 Total Shots 12.27
4.85 Corners 4.18
55.6% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cruzeiro expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gremio in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gremio. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Cruzeiro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 10 points from 11 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 14:21, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Christian (4 goals), N. Villarreal (3 goals), Kaio Jorge (2 goals), with creative support from Kaiki (2 assists), Keny Arroyo (2 assists), L. Romero (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Cassio, Marquinhos, L. Sinisterra unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Gremio Analysis

From their first 11 matches, Gremio have collected 13 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 14:14 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Carlos Vinicius (7 goals), Edenilson (2 goals), Camutanga (1 goals), with creative support from Edenilson (2 assists), F. Amuzu (2 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Marlon, M. Villasanti, Joao Pedro, Viery unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 6 times, Gremio won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:17 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.5%)
Predicted formations: Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 / Gremio 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Cruzeiro 3, Gremio 6
H2H summary: Cruzeiro wins 6, draws 4, Gremio wins 5
Stats
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
Gremio Gremio
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
11
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
2
4 Corner Kicks 1
16 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 2
41% Ball Possession 59%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Goal 1
11 Shots off Goal 6
1 Blocked Shots 2
13 Shots insidebox 4
5 Shots outsidebox 5
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
312 Total passes 455
268 Passes accurate 410
1.85 expected_goals 0.48
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Cruzeiro
Formation
Gremio
Matheus Cunha
Matheus Cunha
Fagner
Fagner
Fabricio Bruno
Fabricio Bruno
Jonathan Jesus
Jonathan Jesus
Kaiki
Kaiki
Gerson
🎯
Gerson
L. Romero
L. Romero
K. Arroyo
K. Arroyo
Matheus Pereira
🎯
Matheus Pereira
Christian
Christian
Kaio Jorge
Kaio Jorge
Weverton
Weverton
C. Pavon
C. Pavon
Gustavo Martins
Gustavo Martins
Wagner Leonardo
Wagner Leonardo
Pedro Gabriel
Pedro Gabriel
J. Nardoni
J. Nardoni
E. Noriega
E. Noriega
Arthur Melo
Arthur Melo
J. Enamorado
J. Enamorado
Carlos Vinicius
Carlos Vinicius
F. Amuzu
F. Amuzu
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
31
Matheus Cunha
G
23
Fagner
D
15
Fabricio Bruno
🟨 20'
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
6
Kaiki
D
11
Gerson
🎯 51' ↓ 61'
M
29
L. Romero
⚽ 66' ↓ 75'
M
99
K. Arroyo
M
10
Matheus Pereira
🎯 66' ↓ 68' 🟨 44'
M
88
Christian
⚽ 51' ↓ 75'
M
19
Kaio Jorge
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
81
Otavio Costa
G
25
L. Villalba
🟨 -5'
D
94
Wanderson
↑ 75'
F
91
Chico
F
9
Bruno Rodrigues
↑ 68'
F
2
Kaua Moraes
D
16
Lucas Silva
↑ 75' 🟨 90+1'
M
17
L. Sinisterra
F
8
Matheus Henrique
↑ 61'
M
43
Joao Marcelo
D
22
N. Villarreal
↑ 46'
M
36
Kaua Prates
D
Gremio 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Weverton
G
7
C. Pavon
D
6
Gustavo Martins
🟨 77'
D
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
54
Pedro Gabriel
D
5
J. Nardoni
↓ 57'
M
19
E. Noriega
↓ 71' 🟨 61'
M
8
Arthur Melo
M
99
J. Enamorado
↓ 71'
F
95
Carlos Vinicius
↓ 84'
F
9
F. Amuzu
↓ 71'
F
Substitutes
12
Gabriel Grando
G
22
M. Braithwaite
↑ 84'
F
14
Marcos Rocha
D
2
Fabian Balbuena
D
17
Dodi
M
38
Caio Paulista
D
21
Tete
↑ 71'
F
43
Luis Eduardo
D
11
M. Monsalve
↑ 57'
M
33
L. Perez
↑ 71' 🟨 85'
M
37
Gabriel Mec
↑ 71'
F
39
Tiago
M
Last matches: Cruzeiro
04.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
1
1
D
29.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
20.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Bahia
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
29.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Remo
1
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
08.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
1
4
L
01.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Santos
0
0
D
18.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
3
3
D
12.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
0
2
L
Last matches: Gremio
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Corinthians
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Santos
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Flamengo
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Coritiba
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Remo
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
19.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vitoria
2
0
W
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
13.03.26
Ser
Gremio
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
26.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
05.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Botafogo
5
3
W
28.01.26
Ser
Gremio
Fluminense
1
2
L
H2H: Cruzeiro vs Gremio
18.04.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
2
0
W
05.11.25
H2H
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
1
W
13.07.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
4
1
W
28.11.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
1
D
10.07.24
H2H
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
2
W
27.08.23
H2H
Gremio
Cruzeiro
3
0
L
31.05.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
0
1
L
17.05.23
H2H
Gremio
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
23.04.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
0
W
21.08.22
H2H
Gremio
Cruzeiro
2
2
D
08.05.22
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
0
W
05.12.19
H2H
Gremio
Cruzeiro
2
0
L
08.09.19
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
4
L
23.08.18
H2H
Gremio
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
14.04.18
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
0
1
L
Last matches: Cruzeiro
04.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
1
1
D
29.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
29.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Santos
0
0
D
15.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
3
3
D
25.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
1
1
D
06.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
1
2
L
H2H at home: Cruzeiro
18.04.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
2
0
W
13.07.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
4
1
W
28.11.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
1
D
31.05.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
0
1
L
23.04.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
0
W
08.05.22
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
0
W
08.09.19
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
4
L
14.04.18
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
0
1
L
Last matches: Gremio
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
12.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
28.01.26
Ser
Gremio
Fluminense
1
2
L
H2H away: Gremio
18.04.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
2
0
L
13.07.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
4
1
L
28.11.24
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
1
D
31.05.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
0
1
W
23.04.23
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
0
L
08.05.22
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
0
L
08.09.19
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
4
W
14.04.18
H2H
Cruzeiro
Gremio
0
1
W

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Cruzeiro 3 missing
-
Cassio
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Marquinhos
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
L. Sinisterra
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT
Gremio 6 missing
-
Marlon
Missing Fixture Broken ankle
OUT
-
M. Villasanti
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Joao Pedro
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Willian
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Viery
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
Walter Kannemann
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT