Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
71.8%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
61.6%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
62.4%
|
- |
Cruzeiro
Gremio
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Cruzeiro
13 matches
Gremio
11 matches
| Cruzeiro | Statistic | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Wins | 3 |
| 4 | Draws | 4 |
| 6 | Losses | 4 |
| 16 | Goals For | 14 |
| 23 | Goals Against | 14 |
| 1.23 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.27 |
| 1.77 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.27 |
| 8 | BTTS Yes | 7 |
| 11 | Over 1.5 | 9 |
| 9 | Over 2.5 | 5 |
| 4 | Over 3.5 | 1 |
| 3 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 3 | Failed To Score | 3 |
| 4.54 | Shots On Goal | 4.18 |
| 13.15 | Total Shots | 12.27 |
| 4.85 | Corners | 4.18 |
| 55.6% | Ball Possession | 50.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cruzeiro expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gremio in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gremio. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.
Cruzeiro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 10 points from 11 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 14:21, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Christian (4 goals), N. Villarreal (3 goals), Kaio Jorge (2 goals), with creative support from Kaiki (2 assists), Keny Arroyo (2 assists), L. Romero (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Cassio, Marquinhos, L. Sinisterra unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
From their first 11 matches, Gremio have collected 13 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 14:14 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Carlos Vinicius (7 goals), Edenilson (2 goals), Camutanga (1 goals), with creative support from Edenilson (2 assists), F. Amuzu (2 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Marlon, M. Villasanti, Joao Pedro, Viery unavailable.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 6 times, Gremio won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:17 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.
Cruzeiro
6
1
11
6
1
2
Lineups
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
Cruzeiro
Bahia
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
Remo
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
Cruzeiro
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
Cruzeiro
Santos
Cruzeiro
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
Gremio
Cascavel
Gremio
Corinthians
Gremio
Santos
Gremio
Bahia
Gremio
Flamengo
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
Coritiba
Gremio
Internacional
Gremio
Remo
Gremio
Palmeiras
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
Vitoria
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
RB Bragantino
Gremio
Atletico-MG
Gremio
Sao Paulo
Gremio
Botafogo
Gremio
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
Cruzeiro
Santos
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
Gremio
Cascavel
Gremio
Bahia
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
Internacional
Gremio
Palmeiras
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
Gremio
Sao Paulo
Gremio
Fluminense
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30:13 | 17 | 41 |
?
|
|
| 2 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31:16 | 15 | 34 |
?
|
|
| 3 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28:23 | 5 | 31 |
?
|
|
| 4 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24:18 | 6 | 30 |
?
|
|
| 5 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25:19 | 6 | 29 |
?
|
|
| 6 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:23 | 2 | 26 |
?
|
|
| 7 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24:24 | 0 | 26 |
?
|
|
| 8 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23:20 | 3 | 25 |
?
|
|
| 9 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22:23 | -1 | 24 |
?
|
|
| 10 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18:19 | -1 | 24 |
?
|
|
| 11 |
Cruzeiro
Home
|
18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | -4 | 24 |
?
|
| 12 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31:31 | 0 | 22 |
?
|
|
| 13 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21:25 | -4 | 22 |
?
|
|
| 14 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21:22 | -1 | 21 |
?
|
|
| 15 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26:29 | -3 | 21 |
?
|
|
| 16 |
Gremio
Away
|
18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20:23 | -3 | 21 |
?
|
| 17 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22:29 | -7 | 20 |
?
|
|
| 18 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21:29 | -8 | 18 |
?
|
|
| 19 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18:24 | -6 | 16 |
?
|
|
| 20 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17:33 | -16 | 9 |
?
|