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03.05.2026 23:00
Estadio Rogelio Livieres
Referee: D. Ojeda
Club Guarani
Match Timeline
Nacional Asuncion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
S. Vargas ↔ G. Benitez
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
61'
M. Lopez ↔ J. Llano
Club Guarani
🔄
62'
I. Ramirez ↔ R. Torales
Club Guarani
🔄
67'
C. R. Santa ↔ I. Bailone
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
67'
R. Prieto ↔ H. A. Benitez
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
71'
P. Coronel ↔ A. Manzur
Club Guarani
🔄
78'
O. Gaona Lugo ↔ A. Samudio
Nacional Asuncion
⚽
82'
H. A. Benitez · Assist: J. Feliu
Nacional Asuncion
🔄
84'
D. Fernandez ↔ K. Ferreira Gonzalez
Club Guarani
🔄
84'
T. Servin ↔ J. Centurion
Club Guarani
🔄
89'
S. Torales ↔ T. Gutierrez
Nacional Asuncion
🟨
90+3'
Patricio Tanda
Club Guarani

Club Guarani vs Nacional Asuncion Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 42.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 50%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
42.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
50%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Club Guarani Win 56.1%
Draw 13%
Nacional Asuncion Win 30.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Guarani1.2
Nacional Asuncion1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Guarani Club Guarani
WWDLW
26 GF / 22 GA
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
WLDWL
25 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
10
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
8
4.2
Shots on Goal
3.72

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Guarani Club Guarani 20 matches
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 18 matches
Club Guarani Statistic Nacional Asuncion
6 Wins 7
8 Draws 8
6 Losses 3
26 Goals For 25
22 Goals Against 19
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
10 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 14
9 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 3
4.2 Shots On Goal 3.72
11.1 Total Shots 11.39
4.05 Corners 4.56
46.6% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Nacional Asuncion. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Guarani expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Nacional Asuncion in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nacional Asuncion having the stronger overall control.

Club Guarani Analysis

So far, Club Guarani have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 25 points from 18 matches. The record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 25:20 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Rodriguez (3 goals), G. Servio (3 goals), Matías López (3 goals), with creative support from D. Rodriguez (2 assists), N. Romero (2 assists), I. Ramirez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Nacional Asuncion Analysis

Nacional Asuncion arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 29 points after 18 matches. The record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 25:19 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through I. Valdez (4 goals), I. Bailone (3 goals), A. Samudio (2 goals), with creative support from A. D. Canete Torres (3 assists), I. Valdez (2 assists), O. Gaona Lugo (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Club Guarani won 5 times, Nacional Asuncion won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:18 from Club Guarani's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87%)
Predicted formations: Club Guarani 4-1-4-1 / Nacional Asuncion 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Club Guarani wins 5, draws 5, Nacional Asuncion wins 5

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 4 3 37:17 20 49
W W L D L
2 22 10 9 3 31:22 9 39
W D W W W
3 22 11 5 6 30:22 8 38
W L D L D
4 22 8 9 5 27:21 6 33
L L W D D
5 22 8 8 6 30:24 6 32
W W L L L
6 22 9 4 9 34:26 8 31
L D W W W
7 22 7 8 7 27:23 4 29
L W D L D
8 22 8 4 10 35:32 3 28
W L L W L
9 22 6 5 11 15:26 -11 23
L D L D W
10 22 5 7 10 18:35 -17 22
L D W W D
11 22 5 5 12 24:33 -9 20
L D L D W
12 22 3 6 13 14:41 -27 15
W D W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)