Login Register
ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
04.05.2026 14:00
Stamford Bridge
Referee: A. Taylor
Chelsea
Match Timeline
Nottingham Forest
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
2'
T. Awoniyi · Assist: D. Bakwa
Nottingham Forest
🟨
10'
Morato
Nottingham Forest
VAR
13'
Taiwo Awoniyi
Nottingham Forest
🟨
14'
Malo Gusto
Chelsea
⚽
15'
Igor Jesus
Nottingham Forest
🔄
45+9'
J. Derry ↔ L. Delap
Chelsea
🔄
45+5'
Z. Abbott ↔ N. Williams
Nottingham Forest
🔄
46'
T. Adarabioyo ↔ L. Colwill
Chelsea
🔄
46'
Cunha ↔ N. Milenkovic
Nottingham Forest
🔄
46'
Igor Jesus ↔ M. Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest
🔄
46'
N. Dominguez ↔ E. Anderson
Nottingham Forest
⚽
52'
T. Awoniyi · Assist: M. Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest
🔄
58'
R. Lavia ↔ Andrey Santos
Chelsea
🔄
66'
R. Sanchez ↔ F. Jorgensen
Chelsea
🔄
66'
↔ C. Wood
Nottingham Forest
VAR
75'
João Pedro
Chelsea
🟨
78'
Liam Delap
Chelsea
🟨
78'
Moisés Caicedo
Chelsea
🔄
80'
D. Bakwa ↔ O. Hutchinson
Nottingham Forest
⚽
90'
Joao Pedro · Assist: M. Cucurella
Chelsea

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
50.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Chelsea Win 48.2%
Draw 4.6%
Nottingham Forest Win 47.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chelsea1.62
Nottingham Forest1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chelsea Chelsea
WWDLW
93 GF / 66 GA
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
WLDWL
68 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
1.9
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
28
BTTS Yes
21
34
Over 2.5
27
5.12
Shots on Goal
4.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chelsea Chelsea 49 matches
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 50 matches
Chelsea Statistic Nottingham Forest
23 Wins 18
10 Draws 13
16 Losses 19
93 Goals For 68
66 Goals Against 60
1.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
28 BTTS Yes 21
41 Over 1.5 38
34 Over 2.5 27
20 Over 3.5 12
15 Clean Sheets 16
8 Failed To Score 17
5.12 Shots On Goal 4.8
14.2 Total Shots 14.02
6.08 Corners 5.54
58.6% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Chelsea's more proactive style and Nottingham Forest's more cautious structure. Nottingham Forest seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nottingham Forest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Chelsea have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chelsea expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nottingham Forest in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nottingham Forest having the stronger overall control.

Chelsea Analysis

Chelsea sit 9 with 48 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 13 wins, 9 draws, and 12 defeats with a 53:45 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Joao Pedro (14 goals), C. Palmer (9 goals), E. Fernandez (8 goals), with creative support from Joao Pedro (5 assists), Reece James (5 assists), P. Neto (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with L. Colwill, R. James, F. Jorgensen, M. Mudryk unavailable.

Nottingham Forest Analysis

Nottingham Forest sit 16 with 39 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 9 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 41:45 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Gibbs-White (13 goals), Igor Jesus (5 goals), C. Hudson-Odoi (3 goals), with creative support from Igor Jesus (4 assists), C. Hudson-Odoi (4 assists), O. Hutchinson (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with W. Boly, I. Sangare, Cunha unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Chelsea won 6 times, Nottingham Forest won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:11 from Chelsea's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.91 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Chelsea 4-2-3-1 / Nottingham Forest 4-4-2
Missing players: Chelsea 6, Nottingham Forest 8
H2H summary: Chelsea wins 6, draws 3, Nottingham Forest wins 2

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship