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MEXICO › LIGA MX
15.05.2026 01:00
Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
Referee: I. Rosario
CF Pachuca
Match Timeline
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
37'
O. Idrissi · Assist: V. Guzman
CF Pachuca
🔄
58'
R. Lopez ↔ U. Antuna
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
🟨
60'
Robert Morales
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
🟨
61'
Álvaro Angulo
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
🟨
70'
Jordan Carrillo
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
🔄
76'
E. Montiel ↔ S. Rondon
CF Pachuca
🔄
76'
A. Carrasquilla ↔ C. Garza
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
🔄
79'
E. Valencia ↔ A. Dominguez
CF Pachuca
🔄
85'
R. Morales ↔ Juninho
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
🔄
86'
Kenedy ↔ L. Quinones
CF Pachuca
🔄
86'
O. Idrissi ↔ G. Alvarez
CF Pachuca
VAR
89'
Eduardo Bauermann
CF Pachuca
🟥
90+1'
Eduardo Bauermann
CF Pachuca

CF Pachuca vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
69.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
CF Pachuca Win 38.2%
Draw 12.3%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas Win 49.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
CF Pachuca1.39
U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
CF Pachuca CF Pachuca
WWDLW
53 GF / 43 GA
U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas
WLDWL
65 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
20
BTTS Yes
25
19
Over 2.5
19
4.53
Shots on Goal
4.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

CF Pachuca CF Pachuca 38 matches
U.N.A.M. - Pumas U.N.A.M. - Pumas 37 matches
CF Pachuca Statistic U.N.A.M. - Pumas
18 Wins 15
8 Draws 14
12 Losses 8
53 Goals For 65
43 Goals Against 51
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
20 BTTS Yes 25
29 Over 1.5 31
19 Over 2.5 19
9 Over 3.5 17
9 Clean Sheets 10
11 Failed To Score 3
4.53 Shots On Goal 4.05
14.05 Total Shots 12.08
4.55 Corners 3.95
48.7% Ball Possession 50.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. U.N.A.M. - Pumas have the edge after taking the first leg 2-0, leaving CF Pachuca needing to respond to a 2-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled more possession in the first leg (67% against 33%). both sides produced the same number of shots on target. U.N.A.M. - Pumas circulated the ball more often, making 569 passes to 259 and completing 515. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with CF Pachuca expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and U.N.A.M. - Pumas in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward U.N.A.M. - Pumas having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors U.N.A.M. - Pumas. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

CF Pachuca Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, CF Pachuca arrive from a league campaign that has them 4 with 31 points after 17 matches. Their record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats with goals at 25:19 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Kenedy (9 goals), E. Valencia (8 goals), Oussama Idrissi (5 goals), with creative support from V. Guzman (7 assists), A. Dominguez (4 assists), E. Montiel (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, U.N.A.M. - Pumas arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 36 points after 17 matches. Their record of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 34:17 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on G. Martinez (9 goals), Juninho (8 goals), A. Angulo (7 goals), with creative support from Adalberto Carrasquilla (6 assists), Juninho (4 assists), J. Ruvalcaba (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, CF Pachuca won 6 times, U.N.A.M. - Pumas won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:16 from CF Pachuca's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.7%)
Predicted formations: CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1 / U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: CF Pachuca wins 6, draws 4, U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins 5

Standings

Liga MX, Clausura 2026
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 10 6 1 34:17 17 36
L D W L D
2 17 11 3 3 33:17 16 36
L D W L D
3 17 9 6 2 31:18 13 33
W D W D W
4 17 9 4 4 25:19 6 31
L W W W L
5 17 8 6 3 28:16 12 30
L L W L L
6 17 7 5 5 16:18 -2 26
L L W D W
7 17 7 4 6 28:18 10 25
L W W D D
8 17 7 4 6 20:17 3 25
D D L W W
9 17 5 8 4 19:17 2 23
D W D W W
10 17 7 1 9 22:32 -10 22
L L W W W
11 17 4 8 5 17:21 -4 20
W D D W D
12 17 5 4 8 26:32 -6 19
W L L L D
13 17 5 3 9 22:24 -2 18
L W L D L
14 17 5 3 9 24:27 -3 18
L W L D W
15 17 5 3 9 19:25 -6 18
L D D L W
16 17 4 3 10 22:37 -15 15
L W D L L
17 17 3 4 10 13:26 -13 13
L L L L D
18 17 3 3 11 20:38 -18 12
W L L L D
Playoffs