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BRAZIL › SERIE B
17.05.2026 21:30
Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo
Referee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil
Ceara
Match Timeline
Fortaleza EC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
28'
Mailton
Fortaleza EC
🟨
40'
Vitinho
Fortaleza EC
🟨
45+3'
Juan Miritello
Fortaleza EC
🔄
46'
Fernando ↔ Sanchez
Ceara
🟨
49'
Alex Silva
Ceara
🟨
49'
Maílton
Fortaleza EC
🔄
53'
Alex Silva ↔ Enzo Lodovico
Ceara
⚽
58'
Melk · Assist: Enzo Lodovico
Ceara
🔄
60'
Gustavo Prado ↔ Giulio
Ceara
🔄
60'
Fernandinho ↔ Matheus Araujo
Ceara
🔄
63'
Vitinho ↔ Rodriguinho
Fortaleza EC
⚽
68'
Julio Cesar · Assist: Melk
Ceara
🔄
74'
T. Pochettino ↔ Welliton
Fortaleza EC
🔄
75'
Ronald ↔ Paulo Baya
Fortaleza EC
🟨
77'
Dieguinho
Ceara
🔄
79'
Diego ↔ Lucas Lima
Ceara
🔄
87'
Rodrigo ↔ Lucca Prior
Fortaleza EC
🟨
90+3'
Enzo Valentim Lodovico
Ceara
🟨
90+5'
Lucas Sasha
Fortaleza EC

Ceara vs Fortaleza EC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Ceara Win 34.1%
Draw 16.4%
Fortaleza EC Win 49.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ceara1
Fortaleza EC1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ceara Ceara
WWDLW
8 GF / 8 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
10 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
3
1
Over 2.5
4
4.75
Shots on Goal
3.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ceara Ceara 8 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 8 matches
Ceara Statistic Fortaleza EC
2 Wins 4
4 Draws 3
2 Losses 1
8 Goals For 10
8 Goals Against 8
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 3
5 Over 1.5 4
1 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 4
4.75 Shots On Goal 3.63
14.38 Total Shots 11.75
5.88 Corners 4.13
49.3% Ball Possession 39.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fortaleza EC's more proactive style and Ceara's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control. Fortaleza EC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 15 points while Ceara sit 14 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fortaleza EC.

Ceara Analysis

With 10 points from 8 games and a place of 14, Ceara still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, and the 8:8 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Juan Alano (2 goals), Matheus Araujo (2 goals), Fernandinho (1 goals), with creative support from Giulio (1 assists), Joao Gabriel (1 assists), Lucca (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Fortaleza EC approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 15 points after 8 outings. With 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 10:8, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by J. B. Miritello (3 goals), Vitinho (2 goals), Luiz Fernando (1 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Ruan Carvalho (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ceara won 6 times, Fortaleza EC won 0 times, while 9 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:12 from Ceara's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.7%)
Predicted formations: Ceara 3-4-2-1 / Fortaleza EC 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Ceara wins 6, draws 9, Fortaleza EC wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 59:28 31 60
W W W D L
3 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
4 33 15 12 6 39:29 10 57
D W D D W
5 33 16 8 9 34:28 6 56
W L W W L
6 33 14 11 8 41:31 10 53
D L W W L
7 33 15 7 11 51:47 4 52
D W L W L
8 33 13 12 8 45:35 10 51
D W W L W
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 10 13 10 40:39 1 43
D L L D D
14 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
15
Ceara Home
33 11 9 13 35:40 -5 42
L W W D W
16 33 11 8 14 37:38 -1 41
W W L W D
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 33 7 8 18 42:49 -7 29
D L L L L
19 33 4 5 24 21:54 -33 17
L L L L L
20 33 3 4 26 18:73 -55 13
L L L L W
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