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ENGLAND › LEAGUE ONE
19.09.2026 11:30
Pirelli Stadium
Referee: O. Mackey
Burton Albion
Match Timeline
Mansfield Town
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
16'
A. Oshilaja
Burton Albion
🟨
21'
Elliott Hewitt
Mansfield Town
🟨
23'
Ryan Sweeney
Mansfield Town
⚽
28'
J. Armer · Assist: C. Vickers
Burton Albion
🟨
39'
Will Collar
Burton Albion
⚽
40'
M. Smith · Assist: N. Moriah-Welsh
Mansfield Town
🔄
46'
E. Hewitt ↔ K. Knoyle
Mansfield Town
🟨
49'
Louis Reed
Mansfield Town
🔄
53'
L. Thompson ↔ R. Oates
Mansfield Town
🟨
59'
Michael Smith
Mansfield Town
🔄
62'
W. Collar ↔ S. Krubally
Burton Albion
🔄
62'
M. Smith ↔ L. Bolton
Mansfield Town
🔄
62'
N. Moriah-Welsh ↔ L. Akins
Mansfield Town
🔄
63'
H. Araujo ↔ K. Adom
Burton Albion
🔄
63'
C. Vickers ↔ M. Dennis
Burton Albion
⚽
70'
L. Akins
Mansfield Town
🔄
75'
S. McLaughlin ↔ F. Blake-Tracy
Mansfield Town
🔄
82'
R. Borges Rodrigues ↔ E. Adiele
Burton Albion
🟨
90+3'
Frazer Blake-Tracy
Mansfield Town

Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.4%
Odds 2.51
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.90
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.4%
2.51 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.70 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.90 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.9%
1.26 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Burton Albion Win 68.4%
Draw 9.7%
Mansfield Town Win 21.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Burton Albion1.45
Mansfield Town1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Burton Albion Burton Albion
WWDLW
12 GF / 15 GA
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town
WLDWL
16 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
2
6
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
7
3.17
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Burton Albion Burton Albion 11 matches
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 9 matches
Burton Albion Statistic Mansfield Town
3 Wins 3
4 Draws 1
4 Losses 5
12 Goals For 16
15 Goals Against 18
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 2
6 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 7
6 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 3
3.17 Shots On Goal 3.67
9.5 Total Shots 12.83
2.83 Corners 3.5
43.2% Ball Possession 45.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Burton Albion's more proactive style and Mansfield Town's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Mansfield Town arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mansfield Town. Burton Albion arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 8 points compared to Mansfield Town in 17 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Burton Albion expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Mansfield Town in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mansfield Town having the stronger overall control.

Burton Albion Analysis

Burton Albion are currently 6 in the standings with 8 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, while the 10:7 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Delap (2 goals), C. Webster (1 goals), K. Chauke (1 goals), with creative support from K. Lofthouse (3 assists), J. Armer (1 assists), Sulyman Krubally (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Mansfield Town Analysis

Mansfield Town approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 6 points from 5 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 8:11 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on N. Moriah-Welsh (2 goals), Jon Russell (2 goals), L. Reed (1 goals), with creative support from N. Moriah-Welsh (1 assists), Jon Russell (1 assists), R. Oates (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Burton Albion won 5 times, Mansfield Town won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:10 from Burton Albion's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.3%)
Predicted formations: Burton Albion 3-4-2-1 / Mansfield Town 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: Burton Albion wins 5, draws 4, Mansfield Town wins 1

Standings

League One
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 5 1 3 16:11 5 16
W L W W W
2 8 5 1 2 8:5 3 16
D W W W L
3 8 4 3 1 14:7 7 15
W L D D W
4 7 4 2 1 13:6 7 14
D D W W W
5 8 4 1 3 17:10 7 13
W D L W L
6 8 3 4 1 13:11 2 13
D D W D W
7 8 3 3 2 17:10 7 12
D D W L W
8 9 3 3 3 14:15 -1 12
L W D L D
9 8 3 3 2 6:8 -2 12
D D W W L
10 6 3 2 1 13:7 6 11
D W W L W
11 8 3 1 4 13:11 2 10
L W L D W
12 8 2 4 2 13:16 -3 10
D W W D L
13 7 2 3 2 11:8 3 9
L W W D D
14 7 2 3 2 9:11 -2 9
D W L W D
15 7 2 2 3 13:13 0 8
L D L L W
16 7 2 2 3 12:14 -2 8
L L D W L
17 7 2 2 3 10:13 -3 8
D D L L W
18 7 2 2 3 7:12 -5 8
D L L W W
19 7 2 2 3 8:18 -10 8
W D L L L
20 7 1 4 2 7:9 -2 7
L L D D W
21 7 1 3 3 8:9 -1 6
W L L D D
22 7 0 6 1 8:10 -2 6
D D D L D
23 8 1 2 5 4:13 -9 5
L L D L D
24 7 1 1 5 5:12 -7 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two