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MEXICO › LIGA MX
10.10.2026 03:00
Estadio Universitario

Tigres UANL vs Toluca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Tigres UANL Win 36.1%
Draw 13.1%
Toluca Win 50.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tigres UANL1.3
Toluca1.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tigres UANL Tigres UANL
WWDLW
26 GF / 23 GA
Toluca Toluca
WLDWL
46 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
2.3
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
10
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
15
4.84
Shots on Goal
6.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 20 matches
Toluca Toluca 20 matches
Tigres UANL Statistic Toluca
7 Wins 10
7 Draws 4
6 Losses 6
26 Goals For 46
23 Goals Against 26
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 2.3
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
10 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 17
8 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 2
4.84 Shots On Goal 6.47
15.63 Total Shots 18.18
6.32 Corners 5.06
53.8% Ball Possession 58.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Toluca's more proactive style and Tigres UANL's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Toluca carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 20 points while Tigres UANL sit 15 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Toluca. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Tigres UANL Analysis

Tigres UANL approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 10 points from 10 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 10:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Brunetta (1 goals), F. Gorriarán (1 goals), R. Aguirre (1 goals), with creative support from J. Brunetta (2 assists), Joaquim (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Toluca Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 20 points from 10 games, Toluca bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 23:12, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Vega (4 goals), Paulinho (2 goals), F. Viñas (2 goals), with creative support from Helinho (3 assists), A. Vega (2 assists), N. Castro (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tigres UANL won 5 times, Toluca won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:24 from Tigres UANL's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.9%)
Predicted formations: Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1 / Toluca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Tigres UANL wins 5, draws 4, Toluca wins 6

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 23:12 11 20
D L W W W
2 9 6 2 1 21:10 11 20
W D L W W
3 10 5 3 2 17:10 7 18
L D W W D
4 9 5 2 2 13:8 5 17
W D W W L
5 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W D W L D
6 10 5 2 3 16:17 -1 17
W D L D L
7 10 5 1 4 19:18 1 16
D L W W W
8 9 4 2 3 14:13 1 14
L D L W L
9 10 4 2 4 11:12 -1 14
L D L W L
10 9 4 1 4 16:14 2 13
L W D L L
11 10 3 3 4 15:11 4 12
L D W W D
12 10 3 3 4 14:16 -2 12
L D L W L
13 10 3 3 4 14:18 -4 12
W W L L W
14 10 2 5 3 12:15 -3 11
W D L D D
15 10 2 4 4 10:13 -3 10
W L D D D
16 10 3 1 6 10:15 -5 10
W W W L D
17 10 2 2 6 12:20 -8 8
L L L D L
18 10 1 0 9 7:25 -18 3
L W L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)