Tigres UANL vs Toluca Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
50.8%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
54.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
61.1%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
- |
Tigres UANL
Toluca
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Tigres UANL
20 matches
Toluca
20 matches
| Tigres UANL | Statistic | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wins | 10 |
| 7 | Draws | 4 |
| 6 | Losses | 6 |
| 26 | Goals For | 46 |
| 23 | Goals Against | 26 |
| 1.3 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.3 |
| 1.15 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.3 |
| 10 | BTTS Yes | 12 |
| 14 | Over 1.5 | 17 |
| 8 | Over 2.5 | 15 |
| 6 | Over 3.5 | 10 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 5 | Failed To Score | 2 |
| 4.84 | Shots On Goal | 6.47 |
| 15.63 | Total Shots | 18.18 |
| 6.32 | Corners | 5.06 |
| 53.8% | Ball Possession | 58.4% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Toluca's more proactive style and Tigres UANL's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Toluca carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 20 points while Tigres UANL sit 15 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Toluca. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.
Tigres UANL approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 10 points from 10 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 10:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Brunetta (1 goals), F. Gorriarán (1 goals), R. Aguirre (1 goals), with creative support from J. Brunetta (2 assists), Joaquim (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Operating from 1 place with 20 points from 10 games, Toluca bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 23:12, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Vega (4 goals), Paulinho (2 goals), F. Viñas (2 goals), with creative support from Helinho (3 assists), A. Vega (2 assists), N. Castro (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tigres UANL won 5 times, Toluca won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:24 from Tigres UANL's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Toluca
Away
|
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23:12 | 11 | 20 |
D
L
W
W
W
|
| 2 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 20 |
W
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:10 | 7 | 18 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 4 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:8 | 5 | 17 |
W
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 5 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14:11 | 3 | 17 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 6 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16:17 | -1 | 17 |
W
D
L
D
L
|
|
| 7 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19:18 | 1 | 16 |
D
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14:13 | 1 | 14 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:12 | -1 | 14 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16:14 | 2 | 13 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:11 | 4 | 12 |
L
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:16 | -2 | 12 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:18 | -4 | 12 |
W
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 14 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 11 |
W
D
L
D
D
|
|
| 15 |
Tigres UANL
Home
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 10 |
W
L
D
D
D
|
| 16 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 10 |
W
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 17 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:20 | -8 | 8 |
L
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 18 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7:25 | -18 | 3 |
L
W
L
L
L
|