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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
10.10.2026 05:00
Yodoko Sakura Stadium

Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 93%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
93%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
54.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Cerezo Osaka Win 51%
Draw 7%
Yokohama F. Marinos Win 42%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cerezo Osaka0.98
Yokohama F. Marinos1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
WWDLW
7 GF / 12 GA
Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos
WLDWL
13 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
3
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
2
3.38
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 8 matches
Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 8 matches
Cerezo Osaka Statistic Yokohama F. Marinos
3 Wins 4
2 Draws 2
3 Losses 2
7 Goals For 13
12 Goals Against 9
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
3 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 6
3 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 0
3.38 Shots On Goal 3.5
12.25 Total Shots 11.38
6 Corners 3.38
56.6% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Yokohama F. Marinos's more proactive style and Cerezo Osaka's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cerezo Osaka expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Yokohama F. Marinos in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Yokohama F. Marinos having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Yokohama F. Marinos. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Cerezo Osaka Analysis

From their first 8 matches, Cerezo Osaka have collected 11 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 7:12 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through S. Sakuragawa (3 goals), Thiago Andrade (1 goals), Lucas Fernandes (1 goals), with creative support from S. Kagawa (2 assists), J. Irvine (1 assists), H. Okuda (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis

So far, Yokohama F. Marinos have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 14 points from 8 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 13:9 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by K. Tanimura (4 goals), J. Quiñónes (1 goals), T. Inoue (1 goals), with creative support from K. Matsumura (2 assists), T. Kondo (2 assists), J. Amano (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cerezo Osaka won 8 times, Yokohama F. Marinos won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:22 from Cerezo Osaka's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
Predicted formations: Cerezo Osaka 3-4-2-1 / Yokohama F. Marinos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cerezo Osaka wins 8, draws 3, Yokohama F. Marinos wins 4

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 12:5 7 19
W W W W W
2 8 6 0 2 17:12 5 18
W W L L W
3 8 5 2 1 20:6 14 17
W W L W D
4 8 5 2 1 21:10 11 17
L D W W D
5 8 5 2 1 14:8 6 17
W W W D W
6 8 4 2 2 13:9 4 14
W D W D L
7 8 3 4 1 16:12 4 13
D W W L W
8 8 4 1 3 17:16 1 13
D L L L W
9 8 4 1 3 11:10 1 13
L W W W L
10 8 4 0 4 16:18 -2 12
W L W W W
11 8 3 2 3 7:12 -5 11
D L D W L
12 8 3 1 4 6:8 -2 10
W W L D L
13 8 2 3 3 11:11 0 9
L L D W D
14 8 2 2 4 11:15 -4 8
W L L D W
15 8 2 2 4 10:15 -5 8
D W L D L
16 8 1 3 4 8:14 -6 6
L L L D D
17 8 2 0 6 7:14 -7 6
L L L L W
18 8 1 1 6 9:12 -3 4
L L D L L
19 8 0 4 4 4:12 -8 4
L D D L L
20 8 1 1 6 7:18 -11 4
L D W L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League