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BRAZIL › SERIE A
17.05.2026 19:00
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Referee: Felipe Fernandes de Lima, Brazil
Botafogo
Match Timeline
Corinthians
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
Arthur Cabral · Assist: Lucas Villalba
Botafogo
⚽
11'
Rodrigo Garro · Assist: Jesse Lingard
Corinthians
🟨
20'
Mateo Ponte
Botafogo
VAR
26'
Nahuel Ferraresi
Botafogo
⚽
32'
Arthur Cabral · Assist: Kadir Barría
Botafogo
🟨
39'
Cristian Medina
Botafogo
🟨
45+6'
Jesse Lingard
Corinthians
🔄
46'
Kadir Barría ↔ Kauan Toledo
Botafogo
🔄
46'
Jesse Lingard ↔ Kaio César
Corinthians
🔄
63'
Raniele ↔ André Luiz
Corinthians
🔄
66'
Mateo Ponte ↔ Vitinho
Botafogo
⚽
70'
Arthur Cabral · Assist: Kauan Toledo
Botafogo
🟨
71'
Arthur Cabral
Botafogo
🟨
73'
Lucas Villalba
Botafogo
🔄
73'
Lucas Villalba ↔ Edenilson
Botafogo
🔄
76'
Breno Bidon ↔ Allan
Corinthians
🔄
77'
André Carrillo ↔ Dieguinho
Corinthians
🔄
77'
Rodrigo Garro ↔ Pedro Raul
Corinthians
🔄
80'
Cristian Medina ↔ Gabriel Justino
Botafogo
🔄
80'
Álvaro Montoro ↔ Santiago Rodríguez
Botafogo
🟨
81'
Alexander Barboza
Botafogo
🟨
90+1'
Alex Telles
Botafogo

Botafogo vs Corinthians Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Botafogo Win 45.9%
Draw 18.5%
Corinthians Win 35.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Botafogo1.3
Corinthians1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Botafogo Botafogo
WWDLW
29 GF / 30 GA
Corinthians Corinthians
WLDWL
20 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.61
Average Goals Scored
1.05
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.84
12
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
4
4.72
Shots on Goal
3.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Botafogo Botafogo 18 matches
Corinthians Corinthians 19 matches
Botafogo Statistic Corinthians
6 Wins 7
4 Draws 7
8 Losses 5
29 Goals For 20
30 Goals Against 16
1.61 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.84
12 BTTS Yes 8
15 Over 1.5 13
12 Over 2.5 4
7 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 5
4.72 Shots On Goal 3.47
12.5 Total Shots 10.79
3.83 Corners 4.89
51.5% Ball Possession 55.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Corinthians. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Botafogo expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Corinthians in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Corinthians having the stronger overall control.

Botafogo Analysis

From their first 14 matches, Botafogo have collected 18 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 26:27 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Danilo (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (4 goals), Matheus Martins (4 goals), with creative support from A. Montoro (3 assists), Danilo (2 assists), Alex Telles (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians sit 16 with 18 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 13:15 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Breno Bidon (2 goals), Matheus Bidu (2 goals), Matheuzinho (2 goals), with creative support from R. Garro (6 assists), Matheus Bidu (1 assists), André Carrillo (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo won 6 times, Corinthians won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:18 from Botafogo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.5%)
Predicted formations: Botafogo 3-4-3 / Corinthians 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Botafogo 3, Corinthians 6
H2H summary: Botafogo wins 6, draws 3, Corinthians wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 7 4 57:25 32 61
D W W W W
2 29 17 9 3 48:21 27 60
W D W D D
3 29 14 9 6 48:36 12 51
W W L W D
4 29 14 8 7 45:34 11 50
D W D L D
5 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
6 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
7 29 12 10 7 43:36 7 46
L L W W W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
10 29 10 8 11 37:47 -10 38
L L D L W
11 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 29 9 8 12 42:47 -5 35
L L W D D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
16 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B