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ECUADOR › LIGA PRO
16.07.2026 21:30
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Referee: R. Cabrera
Aucas
Match Timeline
Independiente del Valle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
E. Preciado
Aucas
⚽
14'
E. Pata · Assist: D. A. Romero Padilla
Independiente del Valle
⚽
45'
D. Reasco · Assist: L. Loor
Independiente del Valle
🟨
53'
R. Quinonez
Aucas
🟨
59'
L. Gustavino
Aucas
🔄
60'
P. Guzman ↔ R. Bolanos
Aucas
🔄
66'
R. Briones ↔ H. Quintana
Independiente del Valle
🟨
72'
S. Tapiero
Aucas
🔄
77'
A. Mena ↔ S. Porozo
Aucas
🔄
77'
E. Pata ↔ M. Perello
Independiente del Valle
🔄
77'
J. Sornoza ↔ D. Guagua
Independiente del Valle
🔄
77'
D. Reasco ↔ J. Angulo
Independiente del Valle
⚽
89'
H. Quintana · Assist: M. Perello
Independiente del Valle
🔄
90'
A. Rodriguez ↔ H. Quintero
Independiente del Valle

Aucas vs Independiente del Valle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 96.9%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
96.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Aucas Win 48.1%
Draw 3.1%
Independiente del Valle Win 48.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aucas1.09
Independiente del Valle1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aucas Aucas
WWDLW
22 GF / 17 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
52 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
2.08
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
7
BTTS Yes
13
6
Over 2.5
15
4.78
Shots on Goal
6.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aucas Aucas 20 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 25 matches
Aucas Statistic Independiente del Valle
10 Wins 18
5 Draws 2
5 Losses 5
22 Goals For 52
17 Goals Against 27
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 2.08
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
7 BTTS Yes 13
9 Over 1.5 21
6 Over 2.5 15
4 Over 3.5 11
9 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 4
4.78 Shots On Goal 6.54
13.56 Total Shots 19.5
5.44 Corners 6.79
54.2% Ball Possession 58.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 43 points while Aucas sit 2 on 32, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Independiente del Valle look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independiente del Valle. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Aucas Analysis

Aucas approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 32 points after 18 outings. They have recorded 9 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, with a 21:16 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Bruno Miranda (5 goals), Andres Mena (3 goals), Snayder Porozo (3 goals), with creative support from Andres Mena (2 assists), Piero Guzmán (2 assists), Santiago Morales (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 43 points after 18 matches. They have recorded 14 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, with a 40:19 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Emerson Pata (6 goals), D. Reasco (5 goals), C. González (5 goals), with creative support from D. Reasco (3 assists), J. Sornoza (3 assists), A. Rodríguez (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Aucas won 2 times, Independiente del Valle won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:27 from Aucas's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.9%)
Predicted formations: Aucas 4-1-4-1 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Aucas wins 2, draws 4, Independiente del Valle wins 9

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4
Aucas Home
30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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